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568 FXUS63 KIND 121044 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 644 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm today - Rain and storm chances increase for Friday and Saturday - Slow moving storms will have a heavy rain and localized flood threat Friday afternoon through Saturday - Chances for rain will continue at times into next week && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Quiet weather will continue through the day today, with surface high pressure hanging on to influence the area for a bit longer. Aloft, flow ahead of an approaching upper trough will bring increasing high clouds today. At the surface, south to southwest winds will bring in some low level moisture, which will keep dewpoints in the 60s. Some elevated smoke will linger today, but with the increasing high clouds, it won't be as noticeable as sky cover. Even with the high clouds moving in, temperatures will still peak in the middle 80s for most areas. During the night tonight, moisture will continue to increase as the upper trough continues its slow approach from the southwest. This will thicken the cloud cover across central Indiana. Some weak isentropic lift will move in as well overnight. This may produce a few showers over the area, so will have some low PoPs to account for this. The clouds will help keep low temperatures in the 60s. && .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Unsettled weather will continue at times throughout the long term period. The upper trough will slowly push north and east into the weekend, moving over central Indiana on Saturday. The system will have plentiful moisture with it given good flow from the Gulf. Precipitable water values will approach 2 inches at times into the weekend. Forcing from the system plus the moisture will lead to numerous to widespread showers at times, especially from Friday afternoon into Saturday afternoon. There will be enough instability for thunder as well. However, shear will be weak with this system. Thus, odds for organized severe look low into the weekend. That being said, isolated pulse strong to perhaps severe storms cannot be ruled out. The main threat for Friday into Saturday is locally heavy rainfall and resultant flooding. The plentiful moisture plus slow moving storms will create this threat. In addition, on Saturday, some deformation from a surface wave may also come into play. Will continue to mention a heavy rain threat in outlooks. The initial upper trough will move out slowly on Sunday, but now another upper system looks to follow it. This will keep chances for rain around through the early part of next week. For mid-week, there is some uncertainty on how the upper pattern will end up. Another upper trough could move toward the area, or the area could be on the periphery of an upper ridge where upper energy could move through as well. Either way though the result will be some chance for rain. Highs will generally be in the 80s throughout the long term, with perhaps some upper 80s arriving by mid-week next week. Humid conditions look to persist through much of the period as well. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 643 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Impacts: - MVFR visibility in fog possible before 13Z Discussion: MVFR visibility in fog is possible through 13Z at KLAF/KBMG. VFR conditions are otherwise expected to prevail through the forecast period as weak surface high pressure centered to the east of central Indiana...allows the very warm and increasingly humid air mass to promote low chances of -SHRA by the end of the TAF period Friday morning. High clouds will be the rule today, with some VFR cumulus also possible...while mid cloud ceilings should arrive around 06Z tonight. Weak south-southwesterly winds today will peak around 5-8KT this afternoon, followed by generally light/variable flow tonight. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...AGM