National Weather Service Raw Text Product

453 
FXUS63 KIND 120450
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1250 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm through Thursday

- Rain and storm chances increase for Friday and Saturday, possibly 
  lingering into Sunday

- Slow moving storms will have a heavy rain and localized flood 
  threat late Friday through Saturday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Surface Analysis this evening shows high pressure in place over the 
southeastern United States. This high was extending its influence 
across the east coast and westward through the Ohio Valley including 
Central Indiana. Light southerly surface flow was in place. GOES16 
shows only some high CI cloud flowing across the state. This was 
mainly due to blow off due to low pressure over TX and associated 
convection in the lower Mississippi Valley. Moisture has returned to 
Central Indiana and dewpoints were now in the upper 50s and lower 
60s. Aloft weak ridging was in place over the southeastern states, 
blocking flow into Indiana. Meanwhile the main jet aloft streamed 
across the northern plains and Great Lakes.

Overall, another quiet night is in store for Central Indiana. The 
ridging and high pressure across the area is expected to continue to 
maintain control of the weather across our area. Forecast soundings 
and time height again show a very dry column. Thus mostly clear 
skies are expected, with lows mainly in the lower 60s. Overall, 
ongoing forecast remains in good shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Beautiful afternoon in progress as the Ohio Valley remains under the 
influence of high pressure. 18Z temperatures were largely in the 
upper 70s and lower 80s with pleasant humidity levels. 

The short term will remain dry as the surface ridge moves away to 
the east slowly but the overall transition back to a more unsettled 
pattern will commence with progressively deeper moisture beginning 
to get drawn north into the region as the day progresses Thursday. 
Ridging aloft will remain over the Ohio Valley within an 
increasingly split flow regime but the upper low producing the 
convection across Texas today will slowly lift towards the region 
with mid and high level clouds expanding into central Indiana. The 
main impacts from the upper low though will not be felt across 
central Indiana until the second half of Friday. 

Much of the thicker smoke aloft had diminished this afternoon with 
less of a haze present. Skies will remain mainly clear into the 
evening with southwest winds and temperatures topping out in the low 
to mid 80s. Cirrus will gradually lift into the region tonight and 
into Thursday as the upper low moves into eastern Oklahoma by late 
day. The arrival of a Gulf moisture plume lifting up the east side 
of the upper low will lead to a slow increase in dewpoints into the 
60s on Thursday and a likely return of diurnal cu for the afternoon 
with better moisture within the boundary layer. Deeper low level 
moisture will not arrive until Thursday night at the earliest 
however with any convection focused to the southwest of the forecast 
area prior to Thursday evening.

Temps...with light southerly winds and increasing warm advection... 
lows should hold in the lower to mid 60s. Despite gradually 
increasing clouds Thursday...low level thermals support mid 80s 
across the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Split flow aloft will persist through the weekend with the jet 
stream well to the north close to the Canadian border. An upper low 
will lift out of Texas and move slowly through the Ohio Valley into 
the weekend before becoming absorbed by the jet stream to the north. 
This will bring a return to unsettled weather for Friday and 
Saturday and possibly into Sunday before drier conditions return. A 
strong upper level ridge will build into the southern Plains by the 
middle of next week and place the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes 
on its periphery and within a favored zone for increased impacts for 
convective clusters.

Thursday Night through Sunday

Remnants of the midweek dry airmass will still be present across the 
region Thursday evening but a much deeper plume of moisture lifting 
out of the Gulf will advect into the Ohio Valley ahead of the 
approaching upper low by Friday morning. A frontal boundary will 
become quasi-stationary across the area and aid in enhancing low 
level convergence as the moisture plume arrives. Expect an 
increasingly unstable environment but with weak BL shear to result 
in areas of slow moving multicellular convection focused especially 
from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. Forecast soundings 
support the threat for heavy rain with PWATs increasing to near 2 
inches resulting in a possible localized flood threat for areas 
getting repeated rounds of convection...especially across the 
southern half of the forecast area. Mesoscale features and 
boundaries will likely impact where repeated areas of convection 
align which will become clearer in the next day or two. For now... 
keeping broad higher precip chances for at least the southern half 
of the region and will fine tune placement and timing and details 
accordingly. 

Sporadic severe storms are possible but convection will likely be of 
a pulse intensity and short lived in the absence of more substantial 
shear needed for organized severe weather. Gusty winds and small 
hail will be possible with any stronger cells as cores collapse. 

Model guidance over the last 24 hours continues to promote potential 
for more of a drier day with a lower convective risk Sunday as the 
stagnant boundary shifts south of the Ohio River with high pressure 
settling across the Great Lakes. The front remains in close enough 
proximity to warrant a continued mention of precip chances focused 
especially across the southeast half of the forecast area. 

The deeper moisture advection from the south will raise dewpoints 
and consequently humidity levels noticeably late Friday and through 
the weekend with borderline oppressive Tds peaking in the lower 70s 
at times. Highs will largely remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s 
through the weekend with the increase clouds and convection. All in 
all it will be a muggy feel to the air.

Sunday Night through Wednesday

Weak surface high pressure over the Great Lakes Sunday will drift 
through the region into the early part of the week and may provide a 
brief period of drier and slightly less humid weather. But the 
expansion of broad ridging aloft into the southern Plains by the 
middle of next week will place the region onto the periphery of the 
ridge and in the primary zone for mesoscale convective systems 
(MCSs) to ride up and over the ridge from the northern Plains and 
upper Midwest southeast into the Ohio Valley. It remains far too 
early to employ any detail into the development of this 
pattern...but confidence is growing in an increased threat for 
convective impacts for much of next week. Highs will rise into the 
mid and upper 80s with muggy conditions likely returning by Tuesday 
and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Impacts:

- Brief MVFR visibility in fog before 12Z possible

Discussion: 

Some brief MVFR fog is possible overnight, mainly at KBMG, but also 
possible at KLAF/KHUF. 

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with mainly some high clouds 
today and mid clouds tonight. Some VFR cumulus may pop during the 
day today.

Winds will generally be around 10kt or less, with highest values 
during the afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...50