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871 FXUS63 KFGF 120339 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1039 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Additional signals for potential severe storms Monday afternoon. - Active pattern keeps daily thunderstorm chances in the forecast each afternoon next week, with the environment increasingly supportive of at least a few strong storms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Conditions remain quiet across the region. The handful of radar echos to the west have fallen apart, with diurnally driven cumulus also coming to an end. Forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 A few radar returns are pushing across the western FA. Very little is reaching the ground, with a handful of NDAWN stations just to our west reporting a hundredth or two of rain. This idea of mostly dry with a few spotty sprinkles remains the expectation through the evening. Made some adjustments to cloud cover and smoke in the grids, otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 425 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 ...Synopsis... Zonal progressive flow prevails through the end of this week, with a gradual pattern shift heading into next week. A shortwave will bring a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday, with a 75 percent chance for 1+ inches of precip across portions of west central Minnesota and southeastern North Dakota. For the central Red River Valley, those chances fall to around 25 percent. Isolated showers are possible on Friday as the system moves eastward out of the region. Heading into the weekend and next week, H5 flow is expected to be more active as southwest low to mid level flow becomes more pronounced. H7 waves are expected to traverse the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest nearly each day from Sunday onward through at least Wednesday. As such, we will see multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms, with a pattern that conditionally supports strong to severe storms. Temperatures through the forecast period will be within the range of normal for early to mid June. ...Strong to Severe Storms Supported Starting Sunday... As mid level flow turns more southwesterly this weekend, thunderstorm chances increase along several H7 shortwaves Sunday through about Thursday. Ensembles are in reasonably close agreement regarding the overall pattern, with the main disagreement residing in the timing of the individual shortwaves. Instability potential is certainly there, albeit likely being slightly exaggerated in model soundings. With the first shortwave on Sunday, the most likely region to see activity will be southeastern North Dakota and the southern Red River Valley. Low to mid level shear looks supportive of organized development, with supercells initially supported; however, the environment may struggle to sustain larger or more numerous storms depending on how much instability manifests. In either case, several model soundings suggest the possibility of all hazards, with damaging wind gusts and large hail having the greatest chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 No major changes from the previous set of TAFs. VFR throughout the period except at KFAR, where MVFR ceilings sneak just far enough north to clip the terminal. Showers may also impact KFAR Thursday evening. Smoke will persist throughout the period, but it is not expected to be dense enough to drop visibility at any terminal into MVFR. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Rafferty DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Rafferty