995 
FXUS63 KLMK 081809
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
209 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this 
  morning and this afternoon across the region.  The threat of 
  organized severe weather remains quite low.

* Another round of showers and storms will move through the region 
  late tonight and during the day on Monday.  Strong/severe storms 
  will be possible on Monday in areas east of I-65.

* Heavy rainfall will be possible with the showers and storms with 
  an additional 1-2 inches of rainfall.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

A remnant MCV is rotating through the region bringing some light to 
moderate rain over central Kentucky. Broken low clouds are slowly 
beginning to lift as this MCV pushes through and we begin to mix. 
Similar to yesterday, broken skies will likely prevent widespread 
low 80s temperatures, so have reduced Max T for this afternoon. 
Otherwise, most of the region will remain dry through today and 
tonight. No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Early morning satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies across the 
region.  Early morning temperatures were in the upper 60s to around 
70 degrees.  Area radars continued to show convection moving across 
the Ohio Valley this morning.  Two main areas of convection were 
noted, one across the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky 
associated with an MCV.  A second MCV was noted just southeast of 
St. Louis.  The St. Louis MCV was driving the most active convection 
at the moment across western KY, near Owensboro.  

Area radar VWPs were showing an increasing low-level jet axis across 
the region with a modest amount of instability present.  The 
activity currently near Owensboro is expected to move eastward 
through portions of north-central KY over the next few hours.  The 
low-level jet will continue keep this convection going for another 
few hours.  Instability is expected to wane with eastward extent. 
The threat for severe weather remains quite low here.  However, 
given the rich low-level moisture combined with a deep warm cloud 
layer and efficient precipitation processes, heavy rainfall will be 
the main threat with this activity.  Based on current radar motion 
and the latest CAM guidance, this activity should head eastward just 
south of the US 60 corridor.  Temperatures through sunrise look to 
remain in the upper 60s to around 70.

For today, upstream MCV is forecast to slowly translate eastward 
across the region this morning.  Remnant convective will push into 
central KY later this morning.  With diurnal heating, scattered 
convection is likely to develop out along this boundary.  The 
highest coverage of showers/storms looks to be east of the I-65 
corridor.  Highs this afternoon will be a little below normal with 
mainly upper 70s and a few lower 80s.

For tonight, closed low over northern MN will slowly pivot eastward 
into the Great Lakes.  Digging trough axis will push a frontal 
boundary toward the region late tonight.  This boundary will push 
toward the Ohio River by sunrise Monday.  Scattered showers and a 
few storms will likely develop in advance of the front and mainly 
affect areas west of I-65 tonight.  Lows tonight will drop into the 
low-mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Monday through Wednesday Night...

Surface frontal boundary is forecast to be pushing through the area 
Monday morning.  As the boundary pushes eastward during the day, 
we'll get some daytime heating to spark another round of 
strong/severe convection across the eastern half of our forecast 
area Monday afternoon.  While instability is a little higher in the 
recent model runs, low-mid level lapse rates are not all that great 
across the region.  However, we should be able to develop 900-1500 
J/kg of MLCAPE across the region during the afternoon which could 
produce damaging winds and marginally severe hail with the strongest 
cores.  The front and associated convection look to push eastward 
out of the region Monday night with a very pleasant airmass moving 
into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday.  

Highs Monday will warm into the upper 70s to near 80 with overnight 
lows dropping back into the upper 50s and lower 60s.  Highs Tuesday 
should be a little cooler with readings mainly in the upper 70s to 
near 80.  Lows Tuesday night will dip back into the mid-upper 50s in 
the west, with low-mid 50s in the east.  Highs will bounce back a 
bit on Wednesday with highs in the middle 80s and overnight lows in 
the upper 50s/lower 60s.

Thursday through Sunday...

By mid-late week, the pattern aloft will feature a general zonal 
pattern with a mid-level wave moving through the southern Plains and 
into the lower Mississippi Valley.  This trough may deepen a bit as 
it moves toward the Ohio Valley by the end of the week and into the 
weekend.  Latest model trends have slowed precipitation onset with 
Thursday looking a bit more dry right now.  However, Friday and into 
next weekend looks quite unsettled with the potential for 
thunderstorms (some strong) and heavy rainfall.   Highs during the 
period will generally be in the 83-88 degree range with overnight 
lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Remnant MCV is pushing through the eastern terminals at this time 
bringing a line of showers through. After this passes, skies will 
continue to thin and lift. Winds will continue to gust 18-22kts 
through the afternoon before relaxing with sunset. Some patchy fog 
is possible, though not mentioned in the TAFs at this time due to 
low confidence. A cold front will drop southeast through the region 
Monday bringing a line of showers and storms after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...SRW