National Weather Service Raw Text Product

629 
FXUS61 KCLE 061058
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
658 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary across central Ohio today will push south tonight as
high pressure builds down across the Great Lakes. A warm front
will lift across the region Sunday and Sunday night as low
pressure moves into the Great Lakes. This low will pull a cold
front across the region Monday into Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
It is currently cloudy with low stratus areawide with patchy
foggy early this morning as a stationary front remains over the
area. We were largely rain-free for a bit, though a few 
isolated showers have started to pop up over the past hour or so
east and along I-77. Many hi-res models suggest we should see 
an uptick in coverage of showers over the next few hours as a 
subtle mid-level shortwave trough approaches from the west,
providing some forcing along with a little surface convergence
along and near the stationary front. Even though we've been 
socked in, latest mesoanalysis suggests there is a little bit of
instability (on the order of ~500 MUCAPE J/kg), enough for at 
least a slight chance of lightning with any showers that 
develop.

Any early morning develop moves east towards the eastern part of
our forecast area by late morning, with additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms redeveloping by early afternoon,
generally along and east of I-71. The setup looks eerily similar
to yesterday, in which we had a few weakly rotating storms
produce isolated wind damage. Should see around 1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE with about 25 knots of deep-layer shear, marginally
supportive of isolated severe convection along and east of I-71.

The front finally pushes south as high pressure builds in from
the north tonight, with no precipitation expected tonight or
Saturday. Patchy fog may redevelop once again tonight, giving
way to mostly sunny skies on Saturday (aside from some clouds
building in from the south during the afternoon/evening hours).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave and associated weak surface reflection will lift east-
northeast out of the Ohio Valley and across the local area Saturday 
night and Sunday, lifting the stalled front back north as a warm 
front across the area late Saturday night into Sunday. This will 
lead to a return of >60F dew points into Sunday along with potential 
for showers/storms for the second half of the weekend. A larger 
trough will dive into the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes 
Sunday into Monday, pushing a cold front southeast across the area 
Monday into Monday night. There may be a relative lull in rain 
chances Sunday night, before another increase in shower/storm 
potential along and ahead of the cold front on Monday. While there 
will be a bit more flow aloft on Sunday and especially Monday, which 
could support organized convection, the amount of instability that 
is able to return currently looks modest. This would keep the risk 
for any severe weather Sunday into Monday on the lower side. 

Lows Saturday night are expected to mainly range from the upper 50s 
to lower 60s, perhaps a bit cooler east of I-79 in PA. Highs on 
Sunday will likely be throttled a bit by cloud/rain potential, 
mainly staying in the 70s but with increased humidity. Lows Sunday 
night will be either side of 60, with highs Monday again in the mid 
to upper 70s (with some dependence on the timing of rain). Lows 
Monday night may trend slightly cooler, into the mid 50s to near
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The longwave trough that will push into the northern Great Lakes to 
start the week will gradually open up/shear out while drifting into 
the Northeast through midweek. The "cold pool" aloft will be in our 
vicinity on Tuesday, which along with a secondary surface trough 
could allow for a few showers/storms to develop on Tuesday. Coverage 
will likely be lower than Sunday-Monday. Upper-level confluence 
behind the departing trough moves overhead for Wednesday and 
Thursday, allowing for surface high pressure and drier weather to 
move in. Will need to monitor for isolated shower potential towards 
Northwest PA on Wednesday still, in closer proximity to the 
departing trough, though the forecast is dry for now with higher 
confidence in dry weather west into Ohio. Heights begin rising for 
the second half of next week, which will allow for a warming trend 
to begin on Wednesday after a somewhat cooler than average
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Variable conditions are observed, anywhere from MVFR, all the 
way down to LIFR from 1/4SM and/or 200 ft ceilings as overcast
skies persist areawide. Scattered showers continue to move
across the area as well.

Outside of visibility restrictions from showers, conditions 
should tend to improve to mostly MVFR by late this morning into 
the afternoon. Probabilities for lightning has been decreasing 
as the forecast for afternoon thunderstorms has trended a bit 
farther south and east. Still have TEMPO TSRA at KYNG and KCAK, 
though it's lower confidence. Most areas should improve to VFR
this afternoon, with non-VFR returning for a few hours late
tonight. There's a lot of uncertainty with the non-VFR looks
like tonight.

Light and variable winds this morning will gradually become 
more northerly at 5-10 knots during the day today before 
becoming light and variable again tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR is likely with scattered showers and 
thunderstorms Sunday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeasterly flow over the lake this morning will shift more 
northerly by tonight and into Saturday. Speeds will be under 15kt, 
though could be just enough to build modest waves in the U.S. waters 
given the onshore flow. A warm front will lift across the lake on 
Sunday. Winds will shift more easterly Saturday night into early 
Sunday, southeasterly on Sunday, and then more southwesterly by 
Sunday evening. Speeds could reach about 15kt at times, building 
some waves but in all likelihood not threatening the 4 foot small 
craft criteria. Winds remain west-southwest at generally 15kt or 
less through the first half of next week as a cold front and perhaps 
secondary trough swing east across the lake. There is a slight 
chance for thunderstorms over the lake today, with greater potential 
inland. Some storms may be possible over the lake Sunday-Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Sullivan