National Weather Service Raw Text Product

266 
FXUS63 KPAH 050445
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern arrives later today/tonight and continues
  through Saturday. Additional rain chances may linger through 
  Monday before dry conditions arrive for a few days next week.

- While widespread significant severe weather is not
  anticipated, a few storms may become severe each day through 
  Friday. Damaging winds are the main threat. The overall risk 
  might be highest on Friday afternoon.

- Periods of locally heavy rain are expected through Saturday. Rainfall
  amounts between 1 and 3 inches are forecast, with localized 
  higher amounts up to 4 or 5 inches possible. A few minor 
  flooding issues are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A frontal boundary is draped from southwest MO up into central IL 
this afternoon. This boundary is located on the southeastern 
periphery of a longer wave trough positioned across the North 
Central U.S. Coverage of convection will increase across our IL and 
MO counties late this afternoon through the evening, and eventually 
sneak into portions of southwest IN and west KY overnight. Deep 
layer shear isn't great, only 25-30 knots at best, but modest 
instability of 1000-1500 j/kg may be enough to lead to some weakly 
organized activity that may briefly become severe. The greater 
concern from later this evening into Thursday morning is heavy 
rainfall and possible flooding concerns. As the boundary gets 
hung up with flow oriented more parallel to it, training 
convection is a distinct possibility. Several CAMs indicate 
swaths of 2-3", with localized amounts up to 5". This zone is 
most likely across our IL and MO counties which resides within a
corridor of healthy pwat values that will be in the 1.8 to 2" 
range.

With the boundary remaining parked nearby and additional 
disturbances moving through, showers and thunderstorms will continue 
off and on through Saturday. Most guidance indicates a short break 
on Sunday before another wave may kick off additional showers and 
storms Sunday night into Monday. A few strong to severe storms can't 
be completely ruled out on Thursday, but shear will remain rather 
weak (30 kts at best). A slightly greater threat may arrive on 
Friday as deep layer shear is forecast to increase to closer to 40 
kts. However, a key to Friday may be how much we destabilize due to 
the possibility of morning clouds and any lingering convection. 
Still a low confidence situation at this point, but there's at least 
some low end potential for some severe storms Friday afternoon with 
damaging winds likely being the greatest concern.

As a longwave trough dives down across the Ohio Valley next week, a 
drier and less humid airmass should move across our region Tuesday 
into Wednesday. Thereafter, models diverge on how quickly additional 
energy moves in, but some possibility of rain exists by later in the 
week again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Convection, low ceilings and intermittent reduction in
visibility will be the main concerns through this TAF issuance.
Intermittent showers and storms are anticipated at each of the 
TAF sites through the day Thursday. Gusty erratic winds are 
possible with any of the storms along with brief reductions in 
visibility to IFR or possibly lower. 


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...KC