930 
FXUS64 KMOB 032318
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
618 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Now Through Wednesday Night... 

The cu field has developed right on cue across inland communities as 
we continue to approach peak heating this afternoon. Majority of the 
forecast remains on track for the rest of the day with highs topping 
out in the upper 80s to low 90s. Main tweak was to the dewpoints as 
most of the guidance was too high and did not indicate the 
anticipated drier air mixing down, predominantly across our inland 
counties. Very isolated showers and storms are possible after 
roughly 21z this afternoon across south-central Alabama and 
northwest Florida, but the majority of the area will remain dry.

An upper level low continues to meander over the Southeast and 
eastern Gulf through Wednesday, but becomes a bit muddled (opening 
up into a trough) as we roll into the evening hours on Wednesday. In 
the lower levels, a weak inverted trough lifts north across the 
Southeast on Wednesday. As a result of this pattern, there will be a 
gradient in moisture developing across the area this afternoon and 
evening with moisture flowing into the southeastern portion of the 
area (closest to the upper level feature) and dry air flowing into 
the northwestern portion of our area (on the backside of this 
feature). Precipitable water increases to 1.6-1.8 inches tonight 
across northwest Florida with barely an inch further to the 
northwest. Moisture levels continue to amplify over the region as we 
roll into Wednesday with HREF ensemble mean PWATs increasing to 1.8-
2.2 inches across the eastern 2/3rds of the area. There will be 
ample moisture, upper level support, and a focus for storms along 
the inverted trough on Wednesday. Widely scattered showers and 
storms are expected tomorrow, especially in the late afternoon and 
early evening timeframe across the eastern portion of the area. While 
we don't anticipate severe storms, we can't rule out some gusty 
winds. At this point, we aren't overly concerned with widespread 
flooding; however, these storms will be efficient rainmakers. While 
the axis of heaviest rain will be to the east of us, we cannot rule 
out some minor, nuisance-type flooding Wednesday afternoon where 
storms repeatedly move over the same locations.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains MODERATE through the rest 
of today with lifeguards reporting yellow flags flying at local 
beaches. The risk increases to HIGH on Wednesday and Wednesday night 
(likely lasting through Friday) at all coastal Alabama and northwest 
Florida beaches with increasing onshore flow. Expect a bump in surf 
heights with 3-4 foot breakers this evening through the overnight 
hours (and another bump to 3-4 feet on Thursday). 07/mb 

Thursday through Monday

An upper trof over the extreme southeastern states on Thursday, the 
remnants of an upper low, slowly moves off into the western Atlantic 
through Friday. A surface trof of low pressure looks to be aligned 
across the forecast area on Thursday, associated with a surface low 
over/near the Carolinas. There is uncertainty with the position of 
the surface trof on Friday, which may be weakly defined, meandering 
over the area or shifting to just north of the area while the main 
surface low/pressure trof moves slowly off the coast of North 
Carolina. The presence of the surface trof will support likely 
pops for much of the area on Thursday, then good chance to likely 
pops follow for Friday as the surface trof may continue to aid in 
convective development.

A broad upper trof pattern centered over the northern/central Plains 
on Friday evolves into a steadily amplifying upper trof over the 
eastern states over the weekend into Monday. A surface low is 
anticipated to develop over the interior eastern states in response 
on Friday, and either moves further off to the north over the 
weekend or merges with the surface low off the coast of North 
Carolina which also moves well off to the north. Either way, this 
pattern brings a surface trof to near the northern portion of the 
forecast area on Saturday which lingers near this position into 
Sunday. On Monday, the surface trof, or frontal boundary by this 
point, finally progresses into the forecast area, possibly as far as 
to near the coast. The evolving upper trof pattern allows for a 
series of potentially vigorous shortwaves to translate eastward 
across the forecast area from Saturday into Monday, and with the 
surface trof in the proximity and eventually moving into the area, 
this will support likely to at times categorical pops through this 
time-frame. A high risk of rip currents is expected for Thursday 
into Friday, then a moderate risk follows for the weekend. /10 /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

General VFR conditions were noted across the forecast area at 23z,
with isolated showers and thunderstorms moving northwest from over
the Florida Panhandle. This convection is expected to last into
the evening hours before decreasing with the loss of the day's
heat. Local drops to near MVFR levels are possible in the stronger
convection, but is not expected to impact operations. More showers
and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon, with greater
coverage as an upper system moves north over the northeastern 
Gulf. Southeast to south winds around 10 knots are expected closer
to the coast, 5 to 10 knots well inland. 
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Southeasterly winds briefly increase to exercise caution in the far 
offshore waters this afternoon and evening into the pre-dawn hours 
on Wednesday. Outside of this bump in winds, no additional impacts 
are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near 
thunderstorms. 07/mb

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through Friday 
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through Friday 
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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