National Weather Service Raw Text Product

448 
FXUS62 KCAE 010825
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
425 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through this morning. A weak front
will move through later today, with isolated showers and 
thunderstorms for northern areas. High pressure returns Monday 
and will remain nearby all week with gradually warming 
temperatures. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return by
the end of the week into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Slight chance for a shower or thunderstorms across the northern 
Midlands this afternoon.

Mostly clear across the region this morning, except for a few debris 
clouds moving south into the area from earlier convection across NC. 
There remains a layer of smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires, which 
is slightly affecting radiational cooling potential, with 
temperatures sitting in the low to mid 60s. Still a bit of time for 
some additional cooling, but it should only be a degree or two 
before the sun starts to warm things up again.

Deep upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS today. A weak 
surface boundary and mid level shortwave will graze the region along 
the NC/SC border, with a similar round of convection expected to 
develop to our north. It does appear the boundary will sink a bit 
further south this afternoon, and therefore have maintained chance 
PoPs across the Northern Midlands as multiple CAM solutions depict 
showers and thunderstorms developing north of the I-20 corridor. SPC 
maintains a Marginal Risk for severe storms in this area, mainly for 
damaging winds. Instability will be limited, generally around 1000 
J/kg or less, with marginal shear generally less than 30 kts and PW 
values around 1-1.25". Any convection should dissipate a couple of 
hours after sunset as the boundary moves southeast and the 
atmosphere stabilizes. Weak surface high pressure then pushes into 
the region tonight, and drier air begins to settle in. Highs today 
climb into the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s 
to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Beautiful weather is expected! 

Beautiful weather is expected on Monday and Tuesday. Troughing is 
forecast across the Carolinas on Monday, yielding to rising heights 
and ridging building across the area by Tuesday. This kind of 
mid/upper level convergence is expected to yield & sustain an 
expansive surface high pressure that will slowly push its way south 
and east during this period and into the long range. Drier than 
normal air is forecast across the area both days, with NAEFS PWs 
near the 10th percentile for early June. This equates to PWs of 
0.75"-1.0", so obviously both days are forecast to be dry. 
Temperatures will likely moderate from where they were this weekend, 
but still be near normal (mid/upper 80s) with below normal dewpoints 
(55F-60F). In general, expect beautiful weather to start the 
upcoming work week! 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Quiet weather is expected on Wednesday, with uncertainty in
  the upper level pattern thereafter. 

- In general, though, a more active pattern looks to arrive by 
  the end of next week.
  

The synoptic pattern looks pretty interesting by the middle to end 
of this week. Upper level ridging is forecast across the area by 
Wednesday and Thursday, but guidance has begun to show a shortwave 
trough from the passing trough today getting cut off over the Gulf. 
This will be the primary feature of uncertainty later this week as 
its evolution and eventual path out of the Gulf will have some 
implications on our weather. There is a range of solutions amongst 
guidance; the GFS is the wettest solution but in general guidance is 
a bit more wet than it was 24 hours ago. Ensemble guidance smooths 
out the solutions a bit but is trending slightly wetter as well. 
Regardless of the track of this feature, it does appear that the 
pattern will get a bit more active beyond Wednesday. Ridging should 
break down as deep trough approaches from the west. The surface high 
should shift into the western Atlantic & increase favorable onshore 
flow, with moisture increase to above normal levels again, 
especially by Fri/Sat. Highs are expected to get back to 
near/slightly above normal values though that will be modulated by 
the extent of showers/storms we see. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period. A few mid-level clouds may 
move through the terminals early this morning, but only around 10k 
ft MSL. Winds generally light and variable with the dry airmass too 
dry to support fog development. There continues to be a layer of 
smoke aloft from Canadian Wildfires but no restrictions to 
visibility at the surface are expected. WSW winds pick up to around 
10 kts later this morning. A few -TSRA may enter the forecast area 
from the north this afternoon but will likely remain north of the 
TAF locations. Otherwise some fair weather cumulus is likely this 
afternoon, which will dissipate into this evening along with winds 
becoming light and variable once again.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Generally VFR conditions expected
through early next week. Moisture increases mid-week leading to
potential early morning restrictions and afternoon thunderstorms
for late week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$