854 
FXUS62 KJAX 270109
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
909 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Lingering convection is continuing west of Trail Ridge and over
interior southeast GA late this evening as the weakening sea 
breeze moves inland, colliding with some lingering weak small
scale boundaries. Not expecting much in terms of thunderstorm 
chances over northeast FL, with the best chances for thunder over 
the next few hours being over interior GA before any remaining 
activity is expected to dissipate from about 03Z onward. 
Otherwise, a seasonably mild night with some patchy fog possible 
over the interior, especially for areas that received the most 
rainfall today. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025

Tuesday: Patchy fog will be possible beginning in the morning,
mainly in areas that received rainfall previously. The Storm
Prediction Center has most of the area under a marginal risk (1
out of 5) for severe storms as a frontal boundary is stalled just
north of the forecast area, resulting in a weak flow pattern. This
will allow the sea-breaze to be the main driving factor for
convection over the area aided by diurnal heating. Most of the
moisture resides along the coast and over southeast Georgia where
most of the convection will likely form. Expect scattered showers
with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms that will be capable
of producing small hail, frequent lightning and gusty winds up to
40-60 mph. Convection will linger into the evening hours as a 
short wave tracks across the area, producing enough instability to
keep things rolling past sunset but should start dwindling after 
midnight. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s over 
southeast Georgia with temperatures getting into the low to mid 
90s over northeast Florida. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s 
over inland areas, staying slightly warmer along the coast.

Wednesday: The weather Wednesday will be much like Tuesday despite
the frontal boundary beginning its trek north. Plenty of moisture
over the area with diurnal heating, sea-breeze convergence and
another short wave making its way across will provide the
necessary instability to bring similar conditions as the previous
day. The Storm Prediction Center once again has most of the area
(mainly areas along and north of I-10) under a moderate risk (1
out of 5) for severe storms. Daytime highs will be in the low 90s
with areas along the coast staying slightly cooler. Overnight lows
are expected to get into the upper 60s to low 70s inland with
coastal temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025

Rainy and stormy conditions continue through the week with a deep
trough aloft beginning to deepen into the area through Saturday 
morning. This will help drive a cold frontal boundary at the 
surface through the area around Thursday night into southeast 
Georgia and travel across into northeast Florida by Friday and 
south of the area by early Saturday morning. The cold front will 
help push moisture south of the area by the tail end of the week, 
dropping precip chances over the area.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above seasonal average for
the forecast period with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s to
low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 746 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025

Afternoon and evening convection has mostly avoided area 
terminals, which is expected to remain the case through the next 
several hours. The airfield with the highest probability of 
convective impacts through about 02Z is SSI, though not expecting 
more than VCTS at this time. Skies clear after sunset tonight, 
with VFR expected to prevail except for chances of MVFR and a 
slight chance for IFR low stratus/vsbys at VQQ and GNV early 
Tuesday Morning. A similar setup for diurnal convection is 
expected Tuesday, yielding SGJ with the highest chances and a 
PROB30 group accordingly. Potential certainly exists for more 
sites to be added in future updates, though chances and confidence
still too low at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025

High pressure to the northwest will build more to the north 
through Monday as a weak frontal boundary remains just north of 
the local waters, resulting in a weak flow pattern. This will 
allow for scattered seabreeze thunderstorms to develop each 
afternoon, beginning Memorial Day and through the week, with 
southerly winds and southeasterly near shore winds as the 
seabreeze develops daily. A cold front will approach from the 
northwest toward the end of the week and may push through the 
waters next weekend.
 
Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for NE FL beaches today 
and tomorrow, low to moderate risk for the SE GA beaches. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop 
again in the vicinity of weak stalled front across SE GA and along
sea breeze fronts today and Tuesday. Despite the downpours, 
frequent lightning may lead to new ignitions across Marion, Putnam
and Flagler counties where fuels are driest. Hot and humid 
conditions will continue through the week with daily thunderstorm 
potential. A strong to severe line of thunderstorms will push into
the area ahead of cool front Friday or Friday night. Rain and 
thunderstorm potential will drop behind the cold front at the tail
end of the week as drier air begins to filter in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  87  71  90 /  40  60  30  40 
SSI  75  85  76  89 /  10  40  40  40 
JAX  72  91  74  94 /  10  40  30  40 
SGJ  73  88  74  92 /  10  40  30  50 
GNV  70  93  72  94 /  10  40  10  50 
OCF  70  92  72  94 /   0  50  10  50 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$