296 
FXUS64 KMOB 101034
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
534 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Now Through Sunday Night...

Surface low pressure has developed over the northern Gulf this 
morning and is expected to slowly lift northward over the course 
of the day. Widespread rainfall continues across much of the area,
with a band of strong thunderstorms located along the Baldwin
County coast, south of I-10. This band will push to the east 
throughout the morning bringing with it heavy rainfall, gusty 
winds, and the potential for one or two brief tornadoes. Hi- res 
guidance shows that this band should exit our local CWA by around 
noontime. Additional storms should develop during the afternoon 
thanks to diurnal heating. Drier air aloft appears to wrap around 
the periphery of the upper-level low to our west which will help 
to steepen lapse rates to around 6.5-7.0 C/km. Deep layer shear of
around 30 knots will also be in place, which could lead to some 
loose storm organization. Gusty winds and small hail will be the 
primary threats with these storms. If we are able to recover after
these morning storms, then one or two 'mini spinnys' cannot be 
ruled out for areas east of I-65. Coverage should decrease by the
evening hours. The surface low appears to occlude and move off to
the west a bit late tonight and into Sunday. However, with the
close proximity of this low, as well as a diffluent southerly flow
pattern aloft, scattered to numerous showers and storms will once
again develop starting late Sunday morning and will continue 
through the evening. Deep layer shear appears to strengthen to 
around 40-45 knots as a shortwave wraps around the base of the 
upper low. Isolated severe storms, capable of producing large hail
and gusty to damaging winds will once again be the primary 
threats, although with a LLJ developing over the Florida 
Panhandle, cannot rule out a tornado over our easternmost 
counties. Heavy rainfall will be possible with any storm that 
develops over the weekend. Given the saturated soils from 
previous rainfall, a few isolated instances of flash flooding may 
be possible, especially over urban/low-lying areas. A High Risk of
Rip Currents will be in place through the weekend. /96

Monday Through Friday...

An upper low will be located over the lower Mississippi River valley 
Monday morning then gradually evolves into an open trof over the 
eastern states on Tuesday. An associated occluded surface low 
meanwhile weakens and moves off to near North Carolina, with a 
surface ridge building across the central Gulf in the process. Have 
continued with mostly likely pops for Monday as this system 
traverses the region, then for Tuesday have gone with slight chance 
to chance pops for much of the area. Cool temperatures aloft 
associated with the upper level low on Monday and mid level dry air 
results in wet bulb zero values near 10 kft, which is favorable for 
hail development. The Storm Prediction Center currently has a 
marginal risk of severe storms for Monday for the entire area and 
will continue to monitor. The upper trof moves off into the western 
Atlantic by Thursday with an upper ridge meanwhile building into the 
forecast region. With the exit of the upper trof, am anticipating 
dry conditions for Wednesday which continues through Friday, along 
with a warming trend. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 70s to 
lower 80s, then by Friday highs will be in the lower 90s for much of 
the area with some inland locations nearing 95. Lows Monday night 
range from the upper 50s well inland to the mid 60s at the coast, 
then trend by Thursday night to range from the upper 60s inland to 
the lower 70s closer to the coast. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Scattered to numerous showers with a few possible embedded storms
affect the area overnight then coverage diminishes on Saturday 
into Saturday evening. IFR/MVFR conditions become predominant 
overnight, then improve to MVFR/VFR on Saturday. East to northeast
winds 5-10 knots are expected tonight. For Saturday, a northerly 
to easterly flow near 10 knots is anticipated over southeast 
Mississippi and southwest Alabama, while further to the east a 
southeasterly to southerly flow develops. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

A low pressure system has developed over our Gulf waters and is 
expected to push onshore this morning. This low will allow for 
winds and seas to quickly increase, and a Small Craft Advisory is 
in place through this afternoon. Winds will subside by Saturday 
night and into Sunday. A light to moderate southwesterly flow 
follows for early next week. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  61  79  62  78  61  83  67 /  40  10  50  40  50  10  10   0 
Pensacola   79  67  79  67  78  67  81  71 /  60  30  60  60  50  20  20   0 
Destin      78  70  78  69  80  69  81  72 /  80  50  60  60  50  30  20  10 
Evergreen   80  63  80  62  81  58  84  62 /  80  30  70  60  70  20  30   0 
Waynesboro  76  57  79  59  77  58  82  62 /  80  20  70  40  70  10  20   0 
Camden      77  62  79  62  79  59  81  62 /  90  40  80  70  80  20  30   0 
Crestview   79  64  79  62  82  61  84  63 /  80  50  70  60  60  20  30   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>636-
     650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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