349 
FXUS63 KIWX 122344
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
744 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances (20-40%) for showers and storms on Monday afternoon 
east of I-69.

- Breezy with light showers possible (20% chance or less) on Tuesday.

- Temperatures gradually warm through Monday, then cooler
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025

An elongated area of high pressure is centered over the Mid 
Mississippi valley this afternoon, providing sunshine and mild 
conditions across the area. Increasing clouds overnight will keep 
lows from dropping too much, only down to the mid 30s to near 
40. Unlike the past two nights, frost is not expected.

Our next system arrives late Sunday into Monday. We are watching a 
low pressure system to become better organized over the Rockies
today that will eject out over the Central/Northern Plains late
tonight into the day tomorrow. As this system traverses the 
Plains and approaches to the Upper Great Lakes, clouds will 
continue increase through the day on Sunday. As WAA ramps up, 
southerly winds gusts to 30 mph will be possible Sunday. 
Temperatures will be warmer on Sunday than they have been the 
past few days with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s! Dry 
conditions prevail for many locations tomorrow, although can't 
rule out a few stray showers/sprinkles as WAA and moisture 
increases. 

On Monday, the area of low pressure will deepen as it moves 
northeast from the Midwest over Lake Superior and into Ontario. The 
system's attendant cold front will sweep through our forecast 
area Monday late morning/afternoon. As the cold front interacts 
with the warm air and moisture, scattered showers and 
thunderstorms may develop, especially east of I69. There is low 
confidence in a stronger storm or two clipping the far southeast
portion of our forecast area, but models support better severe 
potential outside of our area across central and southern Ohio. 
Depending on how early in the day the front passes through, the 
western half of the area could end up completely dry. 

Rain chances have increased on Tuesday as the trough pivots through. 
Scattered light showers will be possible across the area. Tuesday 
will be cooler - with highs only in the 40s - thanks to strong CAA 
with the tightening pressure gradient on the backside of the low. 
Northwest winds will gust up to 30-35 mph on Tuesday afternoon. 

The next chances for rain arrive late in the week on Thursday and 
Friday, however, considerable uncertainty remains due to divergent 
model solutions. The temperature forecast appears seasonable with 
highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 744 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Mid and high clouds will slowly stream in through the period as
warmer air begins to arrive in advance of the next system. Winds
will pick up somewhat Sunday. 

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Fisher