138 
FXUS61 KBOX 121233
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
833 AM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure near Delaware will slowly move northeast today and
tonight. Continued coastal rain and interior high terrain 
wet snow and rain through this morning. Precipitation will 
taper off to pockets of light rain and drizzle this afternoon 
and tonight. Additional showers are likely in eastern New 
England on Sunday. Brief dry period Monday with more seasonable
temperatures before more rain arrives Monday night and remains 
into Tuesday. Cooler yet dry and blustery conditions make a 
return Wednesday into Thursday before more unsettled weather may
arrive heading into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
830 AM update...

Heavy elevation snow across interior northern MA will begin to 
taper off during the next few hours as dry slot lifts north 
across the region and snowgrowth region dries out. Have received
reports of up to 6-7" of snow accum across the northern 
Worcester Hills. Additional snowfall of an inch or 2 is possible
in the higher elevations before the snow tapers off to a light 
rain-snow mix or snizzle. Otherwise, it will be a raw day with 
areas of drizzle and gusty NE winds. Not much temp recovery with
temps remaining in the 30s for most locations, except rising 
into the lower 40s along the south coast. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
330 AM Update:

Key Messages: 

* Continued overcast with drizzle and mist and onshore breezes 
  tonight. Little if any temperature change from overnight.

* Overcast for most areas Sunday, with another round of steadier
  light rain for eastern New England for Sunday. We could break
  free of clouds late in the day with peeks of sun in the 
  interior. Temps in the 40s east, to the upper 40s/near 50s 
  western New England.

Details:

Tonight through Sunday: 

Overcast, drizzly and misty conditions then look to continue 
into tonight, as the system's upper level low crawls from 
northeast NJ into CT/RI by daybreak. NE winds will also continue
at around 10-15 mph, but we should see a gradual decrease in NE
speeds compared to the daytime. Low temperatures are not 
expected to fall very far either with readings in the 30s being 
common. 

A bit more uncertainty as we move into the Sunday period, as it
pertains to another potential round of steadier light rain 
moving landward from the southeastern waters. This is in 
association with a secondary area of low pressure east of the 
southern mid- Atlantic waters that tries to move north and/or 
northwestward around the system's mid/upper low expected to be 
located near southern CT/RI. Model guidance has shown large 
variation in how far west would any steadier light rains 
advance, although recent model runs have shown more of a 
westward trend, with the western periphery of steadier light 
rain into central MA and eastern CT. The exact placement is 
still a little uncertain but felt there was enough consensus in 
the QPF placement to raise PoP into eastern MA toward the high 
Likely to categorical range starting early Sunday morning. Will 
also point out that this second round of rain for Sunday is not 
a substantial QPF event, with totals in eastern MA up to an 
additional quarter-inch before tapering off/returning seaward 
late in the day. The further west one goes, especially western 
MA and most of CT, these areas seem less likely to see any 
additional rain at all, although it will still be generally 
overcast. There is some optimism these western areas could break
free of the overcast and even eke out some peeks of sun late in
the day. If we can break out from clouds in western New 
England, we could see highs nearing 50 degrees. Coldest high 
temperature readings the further east one goes, in the low to 
mid 40s, given overcast and continued onshore breezes.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Rain exits the region Sunday night, then showers return Monday 
  night with another frontal system

* Below normal temperatures midweek with blustery and dry conditions

* More wet weather possible towards the weekend

Details...

Rain over eastern MA ends as the cutoff low to our south moves 
offshore Sunday night and brief ridging builds in Monday ahead of 
another frontal system. More seasonable temperatures will make a 
return, then showers return Monday night and linger through Tuesday 
ahead of a cold front. 925 mb temperatures aloft are still expected 
to reach up to +10C; highs for the start of the week in the 60s can 
be expected.

Cooler and drier conditions return going into midweek following the 
passage of a secondary cold front. In terms of QPF, ensembles 
indicate 24 hour accumulations ranging from 0.10" to 0.25", the GEFS 
running slightly higher and the ECMWF ensemble running slightly 
lower. Despite this front's passage, the upper trough remains over 
Ontario/Quebec. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night will return 
to the 30s and 40s. Highs Wednesday will range from the upper 40s to 
low/mid 50s.

Winds will pick up slightly to start the second half of the week 
following the cold front from Tuesday night/Wednesday. Temperatures 
aloft decrease; 925 mb temperatures go back to around -5C to 0C. Dry 
and blustery conditions can be expected Wednesday into Thursday. 
Unsettled weather looks to make a return with another shortwave 
moving across the Great Lakes and into New England, however the 
timing is still uncertain. Ensembles show low probs of 6 hour QPF at 
or above 0.10" by Friday afternoon. Deterministic guidance varies 
between remaining dry through Friday to indicating at least some 
rain by the end of the day Friday. Ensembles also show PWAT values 
only from 0.20-0.40" going into Friday morning. Details will become 
clearer as we get closer to this event.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today: High confidence in trends but moderate on exact timing. 

MVFR-IFR in steady rain (at times mixed with wet snow in lower
elevations to I-95), with periods of wet snow and visbys 1-4SM
and minor slushy accumulation at ORH/BAF. Steadiest precip
shield (liquid and wintry) moves northward from approx 13z 
south coast to 17z near the northern border with VT/NH, give or 
take an hour or two. Once that occurs, precipitation tapers off 
to an intermittent light rain/drizzle with areas of 4-6 SM mist 
into the afternoon. NE winds 15-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt, 
highest near the coasts.

Tonight: High confidence, though becomes moderate overnight.

MVFR-IFR continues with stratus, fog/mist and drizzle or
intermittent light rains. Another shield of steadier light rain
moves westward from the ocean towards the eastern MA coast and
could make it as far west as central MA/RI between 09-12z
Sunday. NE winds around 15 kt with gusts 25-30 kt early shift to
N around 8-12 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt for the eastern
MA coast.

Sunday: Moderate confidence. 

MVFR-IFR with areas of drizzle and mist generally continues 
into Sunday, although there could be some VFR breaks late in the
day at BAF/BDL. Best chance at steady light rain is eastern MA 
and into RI, although its western extent is still a little
uncertain. Any rain near the eastern coasts should pull away
late. N winds around 8-12 kt become NW and then decrease to 5-10
kt by afternoon.

KBOS TAF...High confidence.

KBDL TAF...High confidence.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. 

Monday: VFR. 

Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. SHRA likely.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Medium - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday: High confidence.

Gale Warnings on the southern waters and small craft advisories
on the northern waters continue. 

On the southern waters, NE winds have increased into the 30-35 
kt range and should continue to increase today. Buoy 44097 is 
reporting wave heights of 9.2 ft as of early this morning at 8 
sec period, and mariners can expect rough sea state conditions 
with a pronounced east fetch. Areas of steady rain reducing 
visby to as low as 2 miles will continue into the afternoon 
before tapering off. Gale Warnings continue through 20z today to
allow for gale force gusts to subside, and these will need to 
be downshifted to SCAs likely to be needed into the rest of the 
weekend. 

On the northern waters, NE winds increase to 30 kt today with 
seas building to 5-9 ft, along with rounds of steady rain this
morning that taper off to mist/drizzle this afternoon. Winds 
may ease some tonight to around 20-25 kt, although may pick up 
again on Sunday to around 25-30 kt. Seas will remain elevated
and rough through the weekend. Thus small craft advisories
continue through Monday morning.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. 

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. 

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rain showers likely. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers. 

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers. 

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 20 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for 
     MAZ002>004-008-009-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ230.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-
     254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Loconto/Hrencecin
MARINE...Loconto/Hrencecin