995 
FXUS63 KLMK 082110
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
Issued by National Weather Service Paducah KY
410 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Widespread rain moves in tonight with around .75" to 1.5" of
   rain is expected across much of the area.

*  Additional rainfall is expected Tuesday and may end as a period 
   of light snow/flurries Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 410 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2024

A sharp but compact shortwave trough is working towards the 
region this afternoon. Ahead of it a broad are of
lift/precipitation is evident. Strong moisture and warm air
advection is ongoing in this area. 295K pressure surfaces show a
classic isentropic lift setup with the aid on an ongoing 40-45
kt low level jet. With that lift thick low cloud cover drizzle,
and light rain trainsitions to more moderate and occasionally
heavy rain. PWAT values are in the 90th+ percentile for
climatology. Expect 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall thorugh Monday
along and south of the Parkways, with areas along and north of
the Ohio River more in the 2/3 to 3/4 of an inch rage. Trends
have held fairly steady with QPF through the last few cycles if
maybe slightly lower with each successive cycle. A rumble of
thunder or two is possible with very modest elevated instablity
but should be the exception rather than the rule.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2024

Embedded shortwave trough and associated surface low will be exiting 
the area to the east-northeast during the day. While a few lingering 
showers and drizzle are possible to start Monday, most of the day 
looks to be mainly dry with just a few small chances into the 
afternoon. Temperatures will remain mild, highs once again be in the 
mid/upper 50s across southern IN/central KY with locations across 
southern KY warming into the lower 60s. Another system is expected 
to increase rain chances on Tuesday. The upper pattern will become 
more amplified as an upper low starts to drop south out of Canada 
deepening the trough axis over the central US. A second sfc low will 
work across the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday dragging a sfc 
cold front across the region. Timing looks to be a little sooner 
than the previous forecast with the cold front working into the Ohio 
Valley and through southern IN/central KY by Tuesday morning. Highs 
will feature a northwest to southeast temperature gradient with 
highs in the mid/upper 40s to near 50 across southern IN and along 
the Ohio River, with mid/upper 60s as you get into the Lake 
Cumberland region due to the timing of the cold front. Overall, this 
will result in rain showers during the day Tuesday before 
diminishing and exiting to the east Tuesday night into Wednesday. 
Cold air will advect in behind the cold front Tuesday night into 
Wednesday. Lows will fall into the mid/upper 20s and depending on 
how quickly the precipitation exits, there could be a transition of 
the rain over to light snow. Little to no accumulation is expected 
at this time. 

Wednesday will be a blustery day as cold air continue to advect in 
thanks to a northwest flow. Light scattered snow showers are 
possible with gusty winds. Highs in the low/mid 30s will feel like 
they are in the mid/low 20s due wind gusts of 20-25 mph. We dry out 
for Thursday but remain chilly with highs in the low/mid 30s and 
lows Thursday and Friday morning in the 20s. 

Slowly start to warm up for the end of the week and into the weekend 
as the overall pattern starts to flatten out and turn more zonal 
Friday int Saturday before a ridge builds in on Sunday. Friday 
currently looks dry but there are some differences in the forecast 
for the weekend. GFS is the drier solution for the weekend while the 
ECMWF wants to increase rain chances. Highs will be near 50 for the 
weekend but confidence is currently low on the current solution.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2024

Southwest winds and VFR conditions are expected during the afternoon 
hours as we cloud up in advance of an approaching weather system. We 
may still see some occasional gusts to 18-19kts at the terminals 
this afternoon.  Cigs will lower this afternoon as the weather 
system approaches form the southwest with precipitation arriving in 
KBWG by sunset.  Overall, vsbys this evening will drop to 3-4SM with 
cigs dropping into low MVFR and eventually IFR.  Rain will end from 
SW to NE Monday morning but low cigs will likely remain in place 
thorugh the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JGG
LONG TERM...00 
AVIATION...