479 
FXUS64 KLIX 261007
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
407 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Lots of dynamic processes going on this morning. Having a lot of 
dynamic processes does not mean severe storms will break out, that 
is just one of the things we discuss and is also different than what 
is occurring this morning. Forcing at the sfc is quite high but the 
mid/upper high behind this cold front is bridging the southern end 
of it as the upper low and attendant trough are lifting out leaving 
the front behind. As the upper level flow becomes more parallel in 
orientation to the front, the front will slow with time and stall 
over the northern gulf this morning. The front can actually be seen 
very well in 14-11.2um sat imagery as a rope cloud moving through. 
The reason for the rope cloud and no storms is the layer just above 
the front is strongly compressive as the high moves in faster than 
the front at around 850mb. This subsident inversion will move down 
to around 900mb before it stops. we should also see the frontal 
inversion somewhere between 1000 and 850mb as it will have passed by 
the 12z flight. These different processes are very dynamic but not 
with those variables supportive of severe wx. This just leads to 
some light showers but no storms. Cloudy day in store as this front 
stalls and begins to lift back to the north as a warm front by this 
evening. This is when the fcast gets interesting from a fog 
standpoint for late tonight/Wed morning. Models are all in agreement 
with some type of strat deck moving in during the evening. But they 
are all having trouble with the height of this deck. Some are at the 
sfc(NBM & CONSShort) and others(all others) are bringing this in as 
a strat deck at different levels with the main level seen around 12-
1500ft. This does make us confident in a strat deck developing and 
moving in, but we will need to see the level this deck comes in at. 
If it can come in above 1kft, the probability of it sitting down to 
the sfc is small. But if it comes in <=1kft, the probabilities are 
higher. Basically, the lower this deck moves in the higher the prob 
of it becoming fog. The conditions needed for "set down" is a very 
strong dry subsident layer just above the strat deck, which we will 
have and no cloud decks above that, which some of the area will 
have/not have. There is some evidence of a deck hanging out around 3-
4kft for areas to the SE part of the CWA but none over the NW two 
thirds of the area. This is the area we will show some reduction in 
vis at this time since probs will be highest in these areas. But 
again, we will need to see the level at which this deck moves in. I 
guess, it could make it easy on us and just come in at the sfc and 
call it a day. But we all know nothing is that easy in meteorology.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

The next front should be closing in on the area around sunrise Thu. 
to visit looks to do so by Thu. There will be a strong thermal 
gradient with this front, so those locations that is passes during 
the day will begin to lower their temps through the rest of the day. 
Most areas should get a few showers with this. And this should bve 
the main convective unit. There is the potential for a few elevated 
storms, but severe is looking more and more as a non-player. Upper 
winds are oriented across the frontal boundary to support layer 
lifting(isentropic lift). At the moment, solutions are centered 
around this front clearing the area with some cloudiness and light 
showers left for the day and possibly night Thu. We could see some 
clearing skies by Fri as high pressure settles in. This will hold 
through the weekend and possibly into the middle of next week before 
return flow starts again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 401 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Cigs will lift from IFR to MVFR by mid to late morning after each 
terminal has fropa this morning. The front will move back over the 
area tonight bringing MVFR then IFR cigs with through the night. 
Winds will shift but will be weak as the front passes each time. We 
have kept vis in MVFR for now at most sites some along the coast at 
VFR for vis. But this will be looked at further as the VFR vis 
should move to at least MVFR but lower vis is possible tonight. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 401 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

A cold front is moving into the northern gulf waters this morning 
and will slow to a stall later this morning. This will bring a 
temporary wind shift from SE to N early today before the front moves 
back north tonight shifting these wind back to southerly. These 
winds are expected to be light around 10kt but some gusts could 
reach as high as 20kt. The next front is expected during the day Thu 
which should clear the northern gulf with much stronger northerly 
winds and cold temps.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  48  74  59 /   0   0  10  50 
BTR  73  54  80  64 /   0   0   0  30 
ASD  73  53  77  63 /  10   0   0  20 
MSY  72  59  78  65 /  20   0   0  20 
GPT  72  54  74  64 /  30   0   0  20 
PQL  76  52  79  64 /  30   0   0  20 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE