355 
FXUS63 KIND 100801
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
301 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain diminishing northwest to southeast into early afternoon

- Above normal temperatures will likely continue through late week, 
  but brief near seasonal temperatures are possible Tuesday

- Rain chances return late Wednesday into early Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 301 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Early this morning, an upper low was across eastern Nebraska. Strong 
southerly flow aloft was bringing in moisture from the Gulf of 
Mexico (as can be seen on the CIRA Blended Layer Precipitable Water 
imagery). This was allowing rain to fall across much of central 
Indiana.

Low level moisture will continue to be brought northward by a warm 
conveyor belt, but as the morning progresses, the focus of this will 
gradually shift south and east. Also through 12-15Z or so, an upper 
level jet streak will move northward through western Indiana into 
lower Michigan. The right entrance region of this streak will focus 
forcing more into southern and eastern portions of the area as it 
moves north.

Meanwhile, a warm front will move northeast through central Indiana 
in the predawn hours. The combination of the forcing from the 
aforementioned features and the plentiful moisture will lead to 
widespread rain early this morning, with highest coverage shifting 
south and east through the remainder of the morning. 

Will go high PoPs most areas before 12Z. By 12Z the northwest 
forecast area will only see scattered coverage (chance category 
PoPs) with high PoPs farther south and east. By 18Z, only far east 
and southeast areas will have some chance PoPs.

Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder, mainly far south, but 
instability will be quite limited.

After the rain ends, clouds will diminish into the afternoon. Mixing 
will then bring down some gusty winds, up to 25 to 30 mph most 
areas. A cold front will move through this afternoon, but with the 
moisture gone, no rain is expected with it.

Being in the warm sector of the system into the afternoon will allow 
temperatures to peak in the 60s to around 70.

Tonight, cooler air will flow into the area, with lows in the lower 
40s common. Wrap around moisture could bring some stratocumulus into 
the northern forecast area by late tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 301 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Monday through Tuesday night...

Quiet weather conditions are expected early in the period with 
surface high pressure building in behind a departing low pressure 
system. A backdoor cold front will be moving through Monday evening, 
but a lack of moisture should limit any precipitation chances. The 
more noticeable impact from the dry front is going to be increased 
cloud cover late in the day followed by cooler temperatures 
overnight. Forecast highs on Monday range from the upper 50s to low 
60s. By Monday night, temperatures finally return to near seasonal 
though a warm up looks likely once again towards midweek. Strong 
surface high pressure centered over the region Tuesday should 
provide plentiful sunshine. 

Wednesday through Saturday...

Model guidance shows an upper trough and associated low pressure 
system pushing across the Midwest late Wednesday into early Thursday 
morning returning rain chances to the forecast. Increasing dynamics 
and moisture advection supports the potential for rainfall, but 
overall forcing/moisture is modest which will limit QPF amounts. The 
strongest large scale ascent remaining displaced further northwest 
of central Indiana closer to the parent trough plays a part in this. 
A widespread soaking rain like we are seeing with the low pressure 
system moving through today appears unlikely. Thunder is also 
unlikely due to modest moisture return and poor lapse rates.

Surface high pressure builds back in on Thursday once the low 
pressure system departs which will promote quiet weather conditions 
through at least Friday night. Ensembles show another system 
approaching over the weekend leading to increasing rain chances. 
While there are low rain chances in the forecast for Saturday, 
confidence in precipitation is very low due to diverging model 
solutions. NBM also tends to bring rain chances in too early when a 
very dry airmass is out ahead of approaching systems. Low POPs will 
remain for Saturday at this time due to the low confidence, but a 
dry forecast appears more likely. Temperatures are expected to 
remain above normal mid-late week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1208 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Impacts:

- IFR ceilings overnight through at least late morning
- Gusty SW winds this afternoon

Discussion:

Rain will continue to overspread the sites early in the period, with 
ceilings falling to IFR at all sites by around 10Z. Lower than IFR 
conditions are possible. IFR will persist through the morning, then 
improvement will occur with drier air moving in. All sites return to 
VFR by around 21Z.

Winds will increase this afternoon with gusts around 25kt possible. 
Winds will diminish after 00Z Monday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...50