127 
FXUS64 KMOB 091751
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1151 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

VFR conditions are generally prevalent across the region with the
exception of localized MVFR ceilings that are impacting areas
closer to the coast. A broken upper cloud deck will continue to 
spread over our region and isolated rain showers will be possible
over interior portions of southeast MS/southwest AL this afternoon
into the evening hours. Ceilings should lower to MVFR to IFR 
thresholds again late tonight into Sunday morning over much of 
the area, with isolated to scattered showers redeveloping,
especially across the Mobile Metro region where likely showers
will be possible. /22

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 451 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

An upper level ridge of high pressure will slowly shift eastward 
across the eastern CONUS today and tonight. Southwesterly flow 
aloft will meanwhile increase over the Mississippi Valley region 
ahead of a potent low pressure system lifting across the central 
Plains. High resolution and short range model solutions indicate 
that the plume of deep layer moisture that has been in place over 
our area will tend to lift northward today, with better quality 
precipitable water values of 1.5" to 1.75" becoming oriented over 
interior portions of southeast MS and southwest/south central AL 
by this afternoon. A lower PWAT airmass (1.0" to 1.3") should 
advance from southeast to northwest into coastal portions of the 
CWA by this afternoon. Isolated to scattered rain shower 
development looks to remain confined to northern portions of our 
forecast area through this afternoon, so we will maintain low POPs
mainly north of a Waynesboro, MS to Andalusia, AL line. We expect
another day of unseasonably warm temperatures that may reach near
record levels in the lower to mid 80s, especially if some breaks 
in the cloud cover occur during the afternoon. Records for 
November 9th are 83 degrees at Mobile (last occurred in 2023) and 
85 degrees at Pensacola (2020). 

Southwesterly flow aloft will increase over our forecast area 
tonight as the potent upper level storm system lifts from the 
central Plains to the Upper Midwest. The drier airmass will still 
hold in place across much of our region through the evening, but 
deeper moisture should advance back into western portions of our 
forecast area late tonight into Sunday morning and into the 
majority of our region by Sunday afternoon. Shortwave impulses 
embedded within the southwesterly to westerly flow aloft and the 
improving moisture quality will allow for an increasing chance of 
rain showers across our area late tonight and especially into the 
day Sunday. Lows tonight will range in the mid to upper 60s over 
interior communities and around 70 degrees to the lower 70s along 
the coast. Highs on Sunday may trend downward slightly into the 
upper 70s to lower 80s given the increased rain coverage. 

A High Surf Advisory will remain in effect along the Alabama and 
northwest Florida beaches where surf breakers up to around 5 feet 
will persist through Sunday afternoon. The high rip current risk 
will also continue along area beaches through the weekend and into
Monday and Monday night. /21

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday) 
Issued at 451 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

The first half of the forecast will certainly be soggier than the
second half as we will likely dry out by mid week. Westerly flow 
will remain in place into early next week with a subtle shortwave 
trough progressing across the Ohio Valley on Monday. This 
shortwave should be enough to draw remnant moisture from what is 
now Tropical Storm Rafael northward into the area. At the surface,
a weak boundary will slowly be pushing southeast providing a 
focus for showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two. However, 
the best forcing looks to be displaced further north and overall 
rather weak. As a result the best rain chances Sunday night 
through Monday night look to be mainly across our northern areas. 
High pressure will then build into the central Gulf leading to 
another period of dry weather through the remainder of the week. A
few shortwaves are expected to progress through the flow but 
given the drier air in place they will just bring re-enforcing 
shots of drier air. Temperatures will start the week out warm with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Things cool off by the end of 
the week when the front finally pushes through as highs will drop 
into the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  80  68  80  64  80  63  80 /  20  60  50  40  20  10   0  10 
Pensacola   72  79  71  80  68  79  67  79 /  20  40  40  20  20  10   0  10 
Destin      71  80  71  80  70  81  68  79 /  20  20  30  20  20  10   0  10 
Evergreen   65  80  65  80  61  80  58  79 /  10  40  20  30  20  10   0  10 
Waynesboro  65  79  65  79  59  79  58  80 /  30  40  30  30  10   0  10  10 
Camden      65  77  65  79  59  78  58  77 /  20  40  30  40  20  10   0  10 
Crestview   66  82  66  84  63  82  61  81 /  10  20  20  20  20  10   0  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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