702 
FXUS64 KMOB 050101
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
701 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS) Issued at XXXXXX

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast with a
southeasterly wind around 10 knots. Some isolated to scattered
showers and storms will develop along the western Florida
Panhandle tomorrow morning and drift inland bringing potential 
reduced visibilities and ceilings. Storms should subside during 
the afternoon as VFR ceilings return. BB/03 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024/ 

..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 347 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

An upper ridge will remain centered off the southeast coast 
through Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will eject 
northeast across the plains through Tuesday night with most of the
energy being shunted northeast of the area around the ridge. An 
associated cold front will also advance eastward to near the 
Mississippi River by Tuesday night where it will stall and 
gradually wash out. A few light rain showers will continue this 
afternoon mainly across southwest portions of the area. The 
showers will dissipate this evening, then redevelop again in the 
same areas Tuesday morning.

Temperatures remain well above normal for this time of year. High 
temperatures will remain around 5 to 10 degrees above normal, while 
lows remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Afternoon highs will top 
out in the lower to middle 80s and overnight lows in the lower to 
middle 60s inland and middle to upper 60s nearer the coast. A High 
risk of rip currents will continue for the foreseeable future. /13

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

At the start of the extended period, our region will be located 
in between an upper ridge located over the western Atlantic and a 
longwave trough over the western US. This will allow for 
southwesterly flow aloft to continue through at least Friday. 
Additionally, a shortwave trough is expected to move along the 
western periphery of the upper ridge, pushing across the southeast
US on Wednesday. This will allow for deep, tropical moisture to 
advect northward. PWAT values look to range from 1.5 inches over 
our western zones to as high as 2.3 inches over our eastern zones.
At the surface, easterly winds will be in place thanks to the 
influence of high pressure sitting over the western Atlantic. 
Additionally, a cold front looks to stall well to our west over 
the Lower Mississippi River Valley as we get into midweek. Looking
at rain chances, the surge of moisture, along with the close 
proximity to the embedded shortwave trough, will allow for rain 
chances to increase across the area, especially over the eastern 
half of the region (lingering subsidence should keep rain chances 
lower over the western half). At this time, not expecting any 
severe weather with this activity due to a lack of instability and
limited deep layer shear.

By late Friday and into the weekend, all eyes point to a tropical 
disturbance developing over the northwest Caribbean/southern Gulf. 
This system (now designated Tropical Storm Rafael) is expected to 
intensify into a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon as it approaches 
and moves over western Cuba. After emerging into the Gulf by 
Wednesday night, the intensity should remain rather steady, although 
cannot rule out a bit more intensification as it moves over the warm 
Gulf loop current and shear over the southern Gulf remains rather 
weak. By the Friday/Saturday timeframe, Rafael should be located 
somewhere over the central to northern Gulf. By this point, the 
environment will turn extremely hostile for the storm, with very 
strong vertical wind shear (potentially as high as 60-70 knots), 
cooler SSTs, and a dry mid to upper-level atmosphere for it to 
contend with. This should cause Rafael to weaken quite rapidly as
the mid to upper level circulation likely decouples from the low 
level circulation and the convection begins to erode away thanks 
to the drier air. How quickly the storm will weaken and where 
exactly the remnant low-level circulation will go is still yet to 
be determined, and therefore it is too early to determine any 
local impacts with regards to rainfall and winds. At this time, we
urge residents and visitors along the northern Gulf Coast to 
continue monitoring the forecast over the coming days. By Sunday 
and into Monday, dry air moves back into the region, allowing for 
rain chances to decrease as we get into the start of the week.

Temperatures continue to remain well above average for this time of 
year. Highs will rise into the upper 70s to low 80s and lows will 
only dip into the 60s. A High Risk of rip currents will continue 
through the week and into the weekend. We will also have to monitor 
the potential for High Surf Advisory conditions Thursday into Friday 
for surf heights around 5 to 7 feet. /96

MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

Moderate to strong southeasterly flow continues through this 
evening, becoming moderate easterly flow by Tuesday night. Mid to 
late week, moderate to occasionally strong easterly flow will 
persist along with increasing seas as a tropical system begins to 
move into the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. A Small Craft 
Advisory remains in effect for the open Gulf waters through this 
evening. Another Small Craft Advisory may become necessary late 
week owing to the increasing seas and winds. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  84  68  81  69  82  68  80 /   0  10  20  30  30  30  20  40 
Pensacola   70  80  71  79  71  80  70  79 /   0  20  30  60  40  40  30  30 
Destin      70  82  72  79  71  80  70  79 /  10  20  40  70  40  50  30  30 
Evergreen   62  82  64  80  68  80  66  79 /   0  20  20  50  40  40  30  40 
Waynesboro  63  85  64  83  67  80  65  78 /   0  20  10  20  20  10  20  30 
Camden      62  80  62  79  66  79  65  77 /   0  10  20  40  30  20  20  30 
Crestview   62  87  66  79  69  82  68  80 /   0  10  30  70  40  50  30  40 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

&&

$$

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