342 
FXUS64 KMOB 041806
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1205 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

MVFR to VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period 
ceilings prevail with isolated light showers through the
afternoon. Winds will remain out of the east to southeast at 10 
to 15 knots, gusting over 20 knots at times this afternoon. /13

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

Upper ridging remains dominant across the far southeastern U.S. 
through Tuesday night. A large upper trough across the central 
CONUS ejects northeastward into the Great Lakes region into 
Tuesday night, with an attendant surface cold front gradually 
washing out and stalling as it progresses into western Mississippi
Tuesday. Some weak isentropic lift will allow for some isolated 
showers to form across portions of the area today, returning again
for the day Tuesday. Best rain chances should stay near and west 
of the I-65 corridor and into the western Florida Panhandle.

Temperatures remain well above normal for this time of year. High 
temperatures will remain around 5 to 10 degrees above normal, while 
lows remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Afternoon highs top out 
in the lower to middle 80's and overnight lows in the lower to 
middle 60's inland and middle to upper 60's nearer the coast. A High 
risk of rip currents will continue for the foreseeable future.
MM/25

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

A large positively tilted upper trof over the western half of the
CONUS looks to evolve into an upper low centered near the 4
Corners region on Thursday which then ejects off towards the Great
Lakes through Sunday. A surface low is expected to be over the 
south central states on Friday and probably follows the upper
system towards the Great Lakes over the weekend. This feature may
bring a cold front out of the Plains, but even if this occurs the
front looks to remain well west of the forecast area through
Sunday. In the meantime, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (PTC
18) is forecast to have reached hurricane strength and be located
near western Cuba Wednesday morning then continues into the 
central Gulf through Friday and weakens to a tropical storm. 
Please see the National Hurricane Center for the latest on PTC 18.
It's important to note that there is a lot of uncertainty with 
the trajectory of PTC 18 especially during the Thursday into 
Friday timeframe which affects forecast confidence in any 
peripheral effects on our area. Abundant Gulf moisture is 
anticipated to spread into the forecast region through Friday, 
though after this point it's less clear how long this will remain 
in place and depends on the eventual movement of (or the remnants 
thereof) PTC 18. For Wednesday, have gone with slight chance to 
chance pops for the western half of the area tapering to good 
chance/likely pops over the easternmost portion where the best 
deep layer moisture is anticipated to be in place. Have continued 
with slight chance to chance pops for Thursday and Friday due to 
uncertainty with the pattern. Will need to monitor for the 
potential of High Surf Advisory conditions Thursday into Friday 
for surf heights around 5 feet. A High Risk of rip currents is 
also anticipated to continue through Friday night. For Saturday 
into Sunday, have had to continue with slight chance to chance 
pops for much of the area until better confidence with the pattern
develops. /29



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  83  68  82  68  82  67  79 /  10  20  10  30  20  20  10  20 
Pensacola   71  80  70  79  72  79  70  78 /  10  20  20  50  30  30  20  20 
Destin      71  81  72  80  72  80  70  80 /  10  20  40  60  40  30  20  30 
Evergreen   62  82  65  81  66  80  64  78 /   0  20  20  40  30  30  20  20 
Waynesboro  63  84  62  83  65  80  64  77 /   0  20  10  20  20  20  10  20 
Camden      63  82  63  79  64  77  62  75 /   0  20  20  30  30  20  10  20 
Crestview   63  85  67  82  67  82  66  82 /   0  20  30  60  40  40  20  30 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ631-632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

&&

$$

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