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328 FXUS63 KIWX 030504 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 104 AM EDT Sun Nov 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a slowly increasing chance of rain late Sunday through Tuesday night. - Rain totals will be greatest near the lake, with notably less toward Lima, OH and Portland, IN. - High temperatures in the 70s Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024 High pressure centered over southeast Michigan this afternoon is providing a comfortably crisp fall afternoon. As high pressure gradually slides east ridging builds aloft, lows tonight will be at least a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, limiting the overall frost coverage compared to Saturday morning. Wind near 5 knots overnight will also limit the risk of patchy fog. In the days ahead, there is a slowly increasing chance of rain showers along with a return of high temperatures in the 70s. Through midweek, the greatest rain totals will be near Lake Michigan, while rain totals will undoubtedly be lower toward Lima, OH and Portland, IN. A ridge over the Southeast US works to keep our forecast area primarily dry Sunday against a strong baroclinic zone along the Mississippi River valley, which is the focus for repeated rounds of rain. A couple of showers may sneak in late Sunday afternoon near the lake. Through time, a deep trough over the Four Corners is nudged east in response to a landfalling low over British Columbia. Showers Monday will favor those in far southwest MI and far northern Indiana, but late in the day Fort Wayne and adjacent communities see a 20-30% chance of rain. Later Tuesday and Tuesday night, the trough clears Indiana bringing one more opportunity for rain until the end of the week. High temperatures peak in the low-to-mid 70s Monday and Tuesday, followed by a modest cool down near 60. Late this week, a trough is forecast to eject from the central Rockies brining a chance of much-welcome rain to the weekend. 500-mb clusters indicate significant difference in the timing and depth of the trough such that forecast confidence at this distance is low. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 101 AM EDT Sun Nov 3 2024 VFR ceilings and southeast winds 5 to 10 kts will prevail overnight. Around sunrise, winds should start to increase. Throughout the afternoon, southeast winds will be sustained around 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts possible. Ceilings will remain VFR throughout the TAF forecast period but ceilings will gradually ebcome lower throughout the day, dropping from where they are now at 25 kft down to 5 to 10 kft by this evening. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Brown AVIATION...Johnson