171 
FXUS64 KMOB 291255
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
755 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 755 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Patchy fog
 through around 13-14z this morning with localized MVFR (perhaps
even IFR) conditions during that time, then VFR today through 
this evening. Light easterly to southeasterly at around 5 to 10 
knots today and tonight. DS/12 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 521 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ 

..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 521 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

We have had some patchy fog over parts of the forecast area this 
morning, for the most part generally light. But, the fog has been a 
little more widespread over interior southeast MS, and also locally 
dense there in a few locations. Doesn't appear to be widespread 
enough to require a Dense Fog Advisory, but some locations across 
interior southeast MS may have visibilities down to 1/4 mile or less 
at times until shortly after sunrise. Will likely have similar 
conditions occur across the area again tonight with patchy fog, 
locally dense in few locations.

Otherwise, no real changes to the forecast during the near term 
period from what we had previously. Shallow layer of slightly cooler 
(but somewhat moist - especially near the coast) will continue to 
ridge down into our area from the northeast as surface high pressure 
remains centered over the North Carolina area. Aloft, upper ridging 
continues over the area today, but shifts just slightly to the east 
on Wednesday. Guidance continues to indicate that PWATs may drop to 
below 1 inch across much of the area today in association with the 
cooler airmass ridging in from the northeast, but increase once 
again to around 1.2 to 1.4 inches on Wednesday. We had a few very 
isolated showers near the coast on Monday afternoon, but with the 
lower PWAT's today we shouldn't be looking at any precipitation at 
all. With the slightly increased available moisture on Wednesday, 
could see an isolated shower or two, especially near the coast, but 
PoPs below 15 percent and will not include any rain in the official 
forecast. High temperatures today and Wednesday will be in the low 
to mid 80s, so just a few degrees cooler than what we have seen over 
the past few days (but still well above normal). Low temperatures 
both tonight and Wednesday night will primarily be in the 60s across 
the entire area, closer to 60 well inland but approaching 70 near 
the coast. 

Beach Note: Given the increasing east to southeasterly flow, risk of 
rip currents increases to a HIGH RISK Tuesday and will continue 
through Wednesday (and even through the remainder of the week). Surf 
heights will also be increasing with 3-4 foot breakers expected 
today and perhaps increasing to around 5 feet on Wednesday. With 
this being just borderline for a High Surf Advisory, and just beyond 
the 24 hour issue period, we will let the dayshift re-assess the 
need for any High Surf Advisory products that may be needed on 
Wednesday. DS/12 

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday) 
Issued at 521 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Southwesterly flow aloft will be in place at the start of the 
period as our region remains located in between an upper ridge 
over the western Atlantic and an upper trough over the Central 
Plains. Throughout the period, the upper trough will lift across 
the Great Lakes region/Ohio River Valley, helping to dampen the 
upper ridge and shove it back to the west. The ridge sits overhead
through the weekend before getting pushed back into the Atlantic 
as a second longwave trough digs over the Rockies. At the surface,
a frontal boundary is expected to approach the area on Thursday 
before stalling and washing out over central Mississippi/Alabama 
on Friday. By the weekend, high pressure over the northern US 
shifts eastward towards the Appalachians, possibly allowing for 
another cold air damming (CAD) event to materialize over the 
southeast US. Similar to the CAD event earlier this week, this 
could send a weak 'backdoor cold front' across the area, which may
only result in an increase in winds by Sunday and Monday.

A few isolated to widely scattered showers, and possibly a 
thunderstorm, may be possible for counties west of the Tombigbee 
River Thursday into Friday due to the close proximity of the 
stalling frontal boundary. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail 
through the period thanks to the subsident effects from the nearby 
upper ridge. Temperatures will remain well above seasonal norms 
throughout the period, with highs generally in the low to mid 80s 
and lows ranging from the low to mid 60s inland to upper 60s along 
the coast. A High Risk of rip currents will continue through the 
week and into the weekend. /96

MARINE...
Issued at 521 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Moderate east to southeasterly winds gradually becoming 
stronger Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moderate to strong 
southeasterly flow the Wednesday night into early Thursday, 
diminishing Thursday night through Friday, but a moderate easterly 
flow will continue offshore through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory 
(SCA) may be required for offshore Gulf waters Wednesday and 
Thursday, but for now it looks borderline and mainly high end Small 
Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) criteria for winds and seas, so have 
opted to hold off one more forecast cycle with regard to issuing the 
SCA and just maintain SCEC at this time. DS/12 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      83  63  82  68  84  66  83  64 /   0   0  10   0  20  10  10   0 
Pensacola   80  68  80  72  81  69  81  66 /   0   0   0   0  10   0   0   0 
Destin      82  69  82  70  82  68  82  67 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Evergreen   84  60  85  62  85  62  85  60 /   0   0  10   0  10   0  10   0 
Waynesboro  84  60  84  62  84  64  82  61 /   0   0  10   0  30  20  20  10 
Camden      83  58  82  61  85  63  83  60 /   0   0  10   0  10  10  10   0 
Crestview   86  60  86  61  86  61  86  60 /   0   0  10   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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