414 
FXUS64 KMOB 282022
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
322 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

The stratus deck that streamed into south-central Alabama this 
morning is long gone and temperatures continue to rebound. Most 
spots have risen into the mid to low 80s this afternoon with West 
Mobile being the warmest spot at 87° and Greenville being the 
coolest spot at 73° (thanks to the earlier cloud deck) as of 19z. 
The rest of today's forecast remains on track as a subtle cold front 
remains draped across parts of south-central Alabama (draped from 
northwest to southeast). Patchy, light fog is possible overnight 
across southeast Mississippi with some guidance indicating slightly 
higher probabilities of dense fog in the pre-dawn hours across parts 
of Perry and Stone Counties. It's not a slam dunk dense fog event, 
but we may need a targeted Dense Fog Advisory for a few counties in 
the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday.

The shallow cool-ish, dry layer of air sitting across south-central 
Alabama today will seep further west into the entire area by 
tomorrow. HREF guidance indicates that PWATs may drop to below 1 
inch across much of the area briefly in the afternoon hours on 
Tuesday before quickly rebounding in the evening hours. Don't expect 
a massive difference in daytime temperatures on Tuesday as we still 
expect highs in the mid to low 80s - just a few degrees cooler than 
the past few days.

Beach Note: Given the increasing southeasterly flow over the Gulf 
waters, the risk of rip currents increases to a MODERATE RISK 
tonight with a HIGH RISK Tuesday and Tuesday night. Surf heights 
will also be increasing with 3-4 foot breakers expected on 
Tuesday. 07/mb

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

No significant changes from the previous forecast. 

Ridging aloft continues to build over the Southeast on Wednesday, 
but eventually gets nudged further east by a potent shortwave trough 
cruising across the Plains and Upper Midwest. A  few subtle 
shortwaves moves overhead in this pattern through Friday with little 
fanfare. The surface high over the western Atlantic continues to 
spill into the area through this timeframe with strengthening 
southeasterly flow. A weak front dives toward the Southeast late in 
the week, but begins to stall as it approaches our area. We still 
expect the front to stall and wash out northwest of our area late in 
the week as it runs up against the surface high. Ahead of the front, 
isolated showers are possible on Wednesday across southeast 
Mississippi and coastal Alabama with a very small 10-20 POP in our 
current forecast. We maintain a 20 POP across southeast Mississippi 
and parts of southwest Alabama on Halloween afternoon with the 
higher rain chances closer to the front (further northwest of our 
area). Ridging builds over the Gulf early in the weekend and spills 
back into the region through early next week and the region stays 
dry.

Beach Note: The risk for rip currents remains HIGH through at least 
Saturday based on the rip current MOS probabilities. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Easterly flow turns southeasterly tonight and gradually increases
to a moderate to occasionally strong through mid-week with 
increasing seas. Small Craft Advisories may be required for at
least the offshore Gulf waters by Wednesday with Exercise Caution
headlines across the remainder of the area. 07/mb 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      63  83  64  82  68  83  64  83 /   0   0  10  10  10  10  10  10 
Pensacola   66  80  69  81  72  81  67  82 /   0   0  10   0   0  10   0   0 
Destin      66  81  69  82  70  81  68  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Evergreen   57  84  60  84  62  85  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  10 
Waynesboro  60  85  59  84  62  84  62  82 /   0   0   0  10   0  20  20  20 
Camden      58  83  61  83  62  84  60  82 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  10 
Crestview   58  85  61  86  61  86  60  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday 
     evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Friday 
     evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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