National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDPBZ
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDPBZ
Product Timestamp: 2024-10-27 23:27 UTC
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970 FXUS61 KPBZ 272327 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 727 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure maintains dry weather and increasing temperatures through mid-week. A cold front passes on Thursday bringing rain chances to the area and a cooler airmass for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Lows below normal. ------------------------------------------------------------------- No major changes for the evening update. Very low dewpoints have mixed down to the surface during the afternoon, so have lowered dewpoints through the evening. Clouds were also updated to account for the area of mid-high clouds moving southeastward in the northwest flow aloft. Previous discussion... With the center of the high still overhead tonight, light wind, clear skies, and low dew points, have again undercut NBM for lows with ideal radiational cooling conditions; this points toward values 5-10 degrees below normal. Some patchy river valley fog is again possible. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry with gradually increasing temperatures. ------------------------------------------------------------------- As the high migrates ever so slightly off to the east on Monday, return flow will begin as warm advection aloft cranks 850 mb temperatures to 6-9C as heights rise. The 850 mb rule suggests high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s from Pittsburgh south supported by the NBM's 70-95% chance of >65. With some weak moisture advection, will not see dew points mix out in the afternoon as they did the previous couple days. This will also work in tandem to hold overnight lows Monday night nearly the opposite of Sunday night at 5- 10 degrees above average. A warm front will lift by to our north accompanied by a weak shortwave traversing the axis of the ridge late Tuesday morning. Weak forcing and displacement of the best moisture to the north should preclude more than an increase in cloud coverage, though won't entirely rule out a shower in and around the I-80 corridor. How far north and how quickly morning cloud coverage retreats will determine high temperatures. Confidence is highest for more sun further south where the lower end of the ensemble distribution suggests the highest potential for clearing. Tuesday will feature the most significant height rises (4-5 dam in 12 hours) and strong warm advection will push highs into the 70s for most, save our far northeast zones. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - High confidence dry weather and above average temperatures through Wednesday. - Next chance for rain comes Thursday with a cold front. - Cooler airmass settles in on Friday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ensembles migrate the high east out off of the coast of New England come Wednesday with upper ridging still in place which should foster the strongest return flow on its backside. Some subtle differences show as the ensembles try to capture the evolution of the ridge downstream of an approaching shortwave across the Upper Plains, but even a scenario with a faster trough/more quickly shunted ridge keeps the most uncertainty out of our area lending high confidence (60-80% chance) of 850 temps >12C and heights approaching 590 dam. Probability of 75 degrees sneaks up to 60-90% Wednesday, but an increase in column moisture isn't going to allow for full sun; if we have any shot of approaching 80F, it's most likely south of Pittsburgh and contingent on more clearing of clouds than the ensembles' mean. More uncertainty then arises on Thursday as a cold front approaches. Highs have a chance at being similar to those of Thursday, but contingent on FROPA timing. 3/4 ensemble clusters introduce rain chances in the afternoon hours which would cap high temps while the other solution with a flatter, northward displaced shortwave holds it off until later in the evening and may help keep trick or treaters drier. Rainfall amounts with this system are still lower confidence, but the good news is that the probability for a wetting rain (0.10") is 80-95%. A tail in the QPF distribution up to ~0.75" contingent on capitalization of marginal instability and slightly higher PWAT values is possible but low confidence. Behind the front, upper troughing will depart as high pressure builds. Drier, cooler air settles in on Friday with moderation to temperatures by next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence in VFR with light winds and occasional passing cirrus through the TAF period under the influence of high pressure. Patchy river valley fog may develop between 06z-12z Monday due to strong radiational cooling. However, the probability of terminal impact (mainly FKL/HLG) remains too low for mention. .Outlook... VFR continues through Wednesday as high pressure positions east of the region and winds slowly increase/veer out of the south. An upper level shortwave trough and surface cold front will approach the region Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, bringing with it increased rain chances and potentially MVFR/IFR restriction development. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLB NEAR TERM...22/MLB SHORT TERM...MLB LONG TERM...MLB AVIATION...Cermak
592 FXUS61 KPBZ 272327 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 727 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure maintains dry weather and increasing temperatures through mid-week. A cold front passes on Thursday bringing rain chances to the area and a cooler airmass for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Lows below normal. ------------------------------------------------------------------- No major changes for the evening update. Very low dewpoints have mixed down to the surface during the afternoon, so have lowered dewpoints through the evening. Clouds were also updated to account for the area of mid-high clouds moving southeastward in the northwest flow aloft. Previous discussion... With the center of the high still overhead tonight, light wind, clear skies, and low dew points, have again undercut NBM for lows with ideal radiational cooling conditions; this points toward values 5-10 degrees below normal. Some patchy river valley fog is again possible. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry with gradually increasing temperatures. ------------------------------------------------------------------- As the high migrates ever so slightly off to the east on Monday, return flow will begin as warm advection aloft cranks 850 mb temperatures to 6-9C as heights rise. The 850 mb rule suggests high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s from Pittsburgh south supported by the NBM's 70-95% chance of >65. With some weak moisture advection, will not see dew points mix out in the afternoon as they did the previous couple days. This will also work in tandem to hold overnight lows Monday night nearly the opposite of Sunday night at 5- 10 degrees above average. A warm front will lift by to our north accompanied by a weak shortwave traversing the axis of the ridge late Tuesday morning. Weak forcing and displacement of the best moisture to the north should preclude more than an increase in cloud coverage, though won't entirely rule out a shower in and around the I-80 corridor. How far north and how quickly morning cloud coverage retreats will determine high temperatures. Confidence is highest for more sun further south where the lower end of the ensemble distribution suggests the highest potential for clearing. Tuesday will feature the most significant height rises (4-5 dam in 12 hours) and strong warm advection will push highs into the 70s for most, save our far northeast zones. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - High confidence dry weather and above average temperatures through Wednesday. - Next chance for rain comes Thursday with a cold front. - Cooler airmass settles in on Friday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ensembles migrate the high east out off of the coast of New England come Wednesday with upper ridging still in place which should foster the strongest return flow on its backside. Some subtle differences show as the ensembles try to capture the evolution of the ridge downstream of an approaching shortwave across the Upper Plains, but even a scenario with a faster trough/more quickly shunted ridge keeps the most uncertainty out of our area lending high confidence (60-80% chance) of 850 temps >12C and heights approaching 590 dam. Probability of 75 degrees sneaks up to 60-90% Wednesday, but an increase in column moisture isn't going to allow for full sun; if we have any shot of approaching 80F, it's most likely south of Pittsburgh and contingent on more clearing of clouds than the ensembles' mean. More uncertainty then arises on Thursday as a cold front approaches. Highs have a chance at being similar to those of Thursday, but contingent on FROPA timing. 3/4 ensemble clusters introduce rain chances in the afternoon hours which would cap high temps while the other solution with a flatter, northward displaced shortwave holds it off until later in the evening and may help keep trick or treaters drier. Rainfall amounts with this system are still lower confidence, but the good news is that the probability for a wetting rain (0.10") is 80-95%. A tail in the QPF distribution up to ~0.75" contingent on capitalization of marginal instability and slightly higher PWAT values is possible but low confidence. Behind the front, upper troughing will depart as high pressure builds. Drier, cooler air settles in on Friday with moderation to temperatures by next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence in VFR with generally light ESE wind and occasional passing cirrus through the TAF period under the influence of high pressure. River valley fog is likely to develop between 06z-12 Monday due to strong radiational cooling. However, the probability of terminal impact (mainly FKL/HLG) is too low for mention. .Outlook... VFR is expected to continue through Wednesday as high pressure positions east of the region and wind slowly increases/veers out of the south. An upper level shortwave trough and surface cold front will approach the region Thursday afternoon into Friday morning to promote increased rain chances and eventually MVFR/IFR restriction development. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLB NEAR TERM...22/MLB SHORT TERM...MLB LONG TERM...MLB AVIATION...Cermak/Frazier