089 
FXUS64 KLIX 242010
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
310 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

High pressure will remain in place across the region. Dewpoints
have come up slightly with a bit of onshore flow today, which
makes for an interesting fog forecast. Fog should be a little more
widespread tonight compared to last night given the slight
increase in moisture. This morning a few observation sites 
dropped to 1 mi or lower, with New Roads briefly dropping to
around 0.25 mi. Compounding the issues, the dry conditions have
allowed several fires to pop up across the area, and some smoke is
likely to be trapped below the inversion, adding a higher
concentration of condensation nuclei to the equation.

HREF probabilities of visibility below 1 mile are higher than the
NBM, which isn't too surprising, but think that the HREF may be a
little too aggressive. Will need to monitor obs and trends
closely, but for the time being am carrying patchy to areas of fog
with no explicit mention of dense fog both tonight and tomorrow
night.

Otherwise short term remains quiet with lows in the upper 50s and
60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

No significant changes to forecast reasoning in the extended
either. Cold front still looks to stall north of the local area
over the weekend, but high pressure will shift eastward with winds
becoming more southeasterly by early in the work week.

Influx of moisture from the Gulf will result in potential for fog,
but density and areal coverage remain uncertain as the depth of
the moisture will be a determining factor. 

With no cold fronts forecast to move through the area,
temperatures will remain well above normal through the period.

Unfortunately, there continues to be no significant rain on the
horizon. Latest drought monitor update this morning indicates D2
(severe drought) conditions have developed over parts of our
northwestern CWA, with abnormally dry conditions across roughly
the northwestern half of the area. Outlooks from CPC continue to
indicate below normal precipitation over the coming weeks, with
drought persisting or worsening across much of the area. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Biggest concern will be potential for fog near daybreak. While
moisture remains fairly shallow, there was patchy fog this
morning, with visibility reduced to one mile or lower at some
non-TAF observing sites. Dewpoints have come up a degree or two
today compared to yesterday, so think fog may be a little more
widespread tonight, especially around Houma and Baton Rouge. Have
included TEMPO or prevailing groups for fog in areas most likely
to see restrictions. Otherwise, once any fog mixes out after
sunrise, no additional impacts are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Benign conditions are expected across the coastal waters as high
pressure remains in place through the weekend. By early next week,
expect a more consistent onshore flow to develop as the high
shifts eastward. No convective impacts expected through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  56  86  57  86 /   0   0   0   0 
BTR  60  89  62  90 /   0   0   0   0 
ASD  58  86  59  86 /   0   0   0   0 
MSY  64  83  64  84 /   0   0   0   0 
GPT  60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0   0 
PQL  58  89  59  89 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM