830 
FXUS64 KMOB 230509
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1209 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Patchy fog will develop overnight into early Wednesday morning
across portions of the region. Visibility may be reduced to MVFR
to IFR thresholds at times and possibly very briefly to LIFR 
thresholds in a few spots. VFR otherwise becomes prevalent again
on Wednesday. Winds remain light across most of the region, except
becoming southwest 5-10 knots along the immediate coast by
Wednesday afternoon. /21 

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024/ 

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

A combination of an upper low off the East Coast and upper level 
high pressure over old Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico will 
create dry northwesterly upper flow over the Southeast through mid 
week. A surface ridge that has set up along the Appalachians will 
bring a general northeast to easterly flow to land areas through 
Wednesday. An upper level shortwave will move southeast through the 
upper flow over the Southeast late Wednesday through Wednesday 
night, moving a weak cold front south over eastern portions of the 
Southeast. A surface ridge stretching southwest along the 
Appalachians sees the southern end become more east/west over the 
northern Gulf coast. Guidance is advertising a slug of moisture 
moving west in this flow over the northern Gulf coast today into 
Wednesday before a band of drier air moves south over the northern 
Gulf coast ahead of the front. Resultant relative humidity levels 
over the forecast area remain an issue. For this afternoon, the 
driest air remains west of the Alabama River. The re-enforcing band 
of drier air Wednesday will mover drier air back over the entire 
forecast area. This drier air will create a more hazardous 
environment for burning. Winds are expected to remain light, 
tempering the risk.

Temperatures remain well above seasonal norms, with high 
temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 80s today, 
mid to upper 80s on Wednesday. Low temperatures tonight and 
Wednesday night are expected to range from the low to mid 50s well
inland, upper 50s to around 60s south of I-10 to the coast.

Even with the continued northeast/easterly flow through the week, 
the light nature of the winds keep swell on area beaches low 
through Friday, with a low risk of rip currents through the week. 
/16

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

An upper ridge will move east across the area Thursday into
Thursday night. The ridge will be replaced by a weak upper trough
Friday into Saturday as a shortwave moves across the Ohio Valley.
This will send a weak front into the area Saturday into Sunday. 
The lack of significant deep layer moisture return will keep 
conditions dry through the period. Global models diverge late in 
the period with the GFS developing an upper low over the 
southeast early next week, while the ECMWF builds an upper ridge.
Due to the uncertainty, will maintain a dry and warm extended 
period. High temps will be in the mid and upper 80s late in the 
week, cooling into the low 80s over the weekend into early next 
week. /13

MARINE...
Issued at 406 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

A surface ridge stretching northeast along the Appalachians will 
shift south to the northern Gulf coast through the week. A light to 
a times moderate northeast to easterly flow becomes a light, more 
diurnally onshore/offshore flow through the week. No impacts 
expected over area waters. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      56  86  58  85  59  86  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Pensacola   62  84  62  83  63  83  63  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Destin      65  84  65  84  65  84  65  83 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Evergreen   54  88  54  87  55  88  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Waynesboro  54  88  54  87  56  87  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Camden      52  87  54  86  56  86  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Crestview   54  88  54  87  55  87  55  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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