542 
FXUS63 KBIS 221511
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1011 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers and breezy to windy conditions are expected today
  as a cold front moves through the area.

- Temperatures will be up and down through the week, but are
  overall seasonable to seasonably warm.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

A broad line of showers continues to push eastward across
central and eastern portions this morning. Earlier this morning
there was some limited lightning activity, although these are
expected to be mainly showers. Look for these showers to become
more isolated this afternoon into the evening. Some breezy winds
may also be found behind this front. These still look to remain
below advisory level. Colder temperatures will also be found
behind this front with highs generally in the mid 40s to mid
50s, and some lower 60s southeast. Overall made only minor
adjustments to PoPs based on current radar trends for this
update. 

UPDATE
Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Cold frontal boundary is now through all but the southern James
River Valley of ND. As has been the case all night, very gusty
winds are accompanying the fropa though return to "breezy"
(gusts less than 25 mph) levels within an hour or two. A line of
post frontal showers from just west of Bottineau down to
Dickinson continues steadily moving from west to east. The
expectation remains that most of these showers will exit the
forecast area by noon. However, a few wrap-around showers remain
possible this afternoon mainly in the north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

A cold frontal boundary off surface low pressure over 
southwestern Ontario continues passing through the forecast area
and should be fully through by mid-morning at the latest. With 
moderate pressure rises, winds have become quite gusty as the 
front passes through with a gust as high as 44 mph recently 
observed. These stronger gusts have not been lasting terribly
long with post frontal wind gusts dropping closer to the 20 to 
25 mph range within an hour or two. Regardless, winds should 
remain breezy to windy through much of the day today. 

A line of showers continues working into northwestern North 
Dakota behind the front, and will progress eastward through the
morning and possibly into the early afternoon hours. Rain 
showers remain most favored over northern parts of the forecast
area, though may expand towards the ND/SD border later this 
morning. As alluded to, most precipitation is expected to end by
noon or during the early afternoon. However, a few wrap-around 
showers are possible this afternoon into the early evening 
hours.

Winds will rapidly diminish this evening as the sun sets and
high pressure begins working into western ND. High pressure is
transitory, so while mostly clear skies are expected, winds
likely won't become totally light through the entire night. As 
a result, lows in the mid 20s are expected for most of the CWA, 
which is slightly below average for this time of year, but 
temperatures are not expected to completely tank. 

Beyond tonight, mostly dry conditions are expected to prevail
through the weekend. However, weak shortwave energy on Thursday
may produce additional light rain. The best rain chances on 
Thursday are in the south at 20 to 40 percent. Overall, 
temperatures for the latter half of the week will be seasonable 
to seasonably warm. A transitory ridge Saturday night into 
Sunday is strongly favored to produce well above average high 
temperatures that may reach the mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday. 
Models are fairly consistent in a trough quickly leveling the 
ridge bringing more seasonable temperatures and perhaps 
additional precipitation early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Frontal boundary has passed through almost all of western and
central ND a bit quicker than initially anticipated this 
morning. Winds accompanying the front have been gusting up to 30
kts or so for an hour or two at most locations before settling
down. Presently, these gusty winds are only impacting the KJMS 
terminal though winds are expected to pick back up a bit again 
later this morning and afternoon across the area. Showers and 
MVFR ceilings are trailing behind the frontal boundary, with 
pockets of IFR ceilings in the northwest. Showers should mostly 
exit the area by noon, though isolated wrap-around showers are 
possible this afternoon, mainly in the north. Ceilings will 
improve through the day today and winds will rapidly diminish 
this evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken