292 
FXUS63 KIND 191616
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1216 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet, pleasant weather expected through at least early next week

- Near to above-average temperatures favored through the weekend and 
  into next week

- The next chance for rain will be Tuesday and Wednesday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 827 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Surface high pressure and upper ridging, from New England to the 
South, along with a very dry column per Hi-Res soundings will 
continue to mean clear skies, not only for central Indiana, but also 
for the bulk of the eastern United States today. The full sunshine 
will allow temperatures rebound to above normal with afternoon highs 
mostly in the lower 70s on tap. 

Despite the RH expected to drop slightly below 30% this afternoon 
and fuel moistures approaching 8%, the light 20 foot winds will mean 
wildfire spread will not be a big concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Synopsis:

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure over 
the eastern half of the CONUS. The high appeared centered over NY 
and PA, but stretched west into the Ohio Valley and then across the 
deep south.  The strong surface high and subsidence across the area 
was resulting in the nearest clouds to Indiana being nearly 600 
miles away. Aloft, water vapor showed strong ridging in place over 
the east coast while a deep trough was found across the west coast 
along with an upper low that was becoming cut-off over the 
southwestern states. There was a resultant southwest flow of 
moisture over the plains states. Winds were calm across Central 
Indiana and dew points were in the 30s.

Today and tonight -

More Quiet, pleasant weather is expected today and tonight.

The strong ridge in place over the east coast is expected to 
continue to shift east today, but an overall blocking pattern aloft 
is expected to remain in place.  As the upper low over the southwest 
continues to spin today and tonight, a new upper ridge develops over 
the plains. This will once again bring subsidence to Central Indiana 
along with a reorganization of the surface high pressure system. The 
high will slowly retrograde and settle over the Ohio Valley through 
tonight. Forecast soundings and time height sections continue to 
show a very dry column across the area. Thus a continued sunny day 
is in store along with a clear night tonight. Overall there is 
little change in the temperature of the air mass. Thus highs today 
will only be at or slightly above persistence, in the upper 60s and 
lower 70s. Expect lows again tonight in lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Sunday through Monday -

More quiet and warm weather will be expected on Sunday and Monday. 
Models suggest a second strong ridge to remain over the region on 
Sunday and Monday, keeping the strong surface high over the 
southeastern states and east coast. This will result in slightly 
warmer southerly flow to Central Indiana, along with increasing 
temperatures. Again, forecast soundings show a dry column on these 
days. Thus more sunny days and clear nights with temperatures at or 
just warmer than persistence.

Tuesday and Wednesday -

Models suggest the upper low from the southwestern states will push 
northeast to Illinois on Tuesday as it weakens into just a short wave 
embedded within the flow aloft. This wave looks to pass across 
Indiana on Tuesday afternoon and evening, providing ample forcing 
dynamics. However moisture still remains a problem as gulf moisture 
fails to arrive. Thus small chances for rain in the afternoon and 
evening seem reasonable as these forcing features pass. Any rainfall 
amounts should be light.

Another round of showers will be possible on Wednesday night as a 
strong cold front and a secondary wave appear to pass across Central 
Indiana. Stronger forcing appears to accompany this front as 
compared to the previous system, and forecast soundings have trended 
towards more saturation than previous runs. Furthermore a very 
strong change in air mass is expected in the wake of the front. At 
this time confidence for rain is highest on Wednesday, due to the 
better organized dynamics, although again, precipitation amounts 
will be light.

Thursday  and Friday -

Strong high pressure is expected to settle across Central Indiana on 
Thursday and Friday in the wake of the front.  As the high arrives a 
much cooler air will arrive with it. Highs on Thursday and Friday 
will only reach the upper 50s to near 60.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Impacts: 

- None

Discussion:

Broad high pressure, from New england to the southern states, and a 
very dry column per Hi-Res soundings will result in clear skies and 
calm or very light SSW winds. There is a vry small chance of brief 
MVFR or worse, very shallow fog 09z-12z at the smaller airports.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...MK