042 
FXUS64 KLIX 182019
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
319 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The deep layer ridge that has dominated the region will continue
to do so through the weekend. This will result in continued low
humidity, mainly clear skies, and persistent east-northeast winds.
Temperatures will gradually warm through the weekend as the heart
of a 925mb thermal trough axis shifts to the east of the region.
This will allow temperatures to climb back to more average
readings with highs forecast to be in the upper 70s and lower 80s
and lows in the 50s and lower 60s. The temperature spread between
the 25th and 75th percentiles is averaging 3 degrees this weekend,
so the forecast largely mirrors the NBM deterministic output. The
only adjustment made, as has been done the past few days, is to
account for cold air drainage and cooler temperatures in the 
Pearl River and Pascagoula River basins each night.

The only concern over the weekend is the potential for some minor
coastal flooding along east facing shorelines as the persistent
east wind of 15 to 20 mph and increased wave activity offshore
increases wave runup along the coast. Minor coastal flooding of
around 1 foot above ground level is expected during each high tide
cycle for east facing shorelines. A coastal flood advisory has
been issued for tonight, and additional coastal flood advisories
will be issued over the weekend.  

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The same deep layer ridging in place this weekend will remain over
the area through Tuesday, and this will allow for a continuation
of the same conditions seen across the area for the past few days
in the form of low humidity, clear skies, and a persistent
easterly flow. Coastal flooding concerns during high tide are
expected to continue Monday night into Tuesday, but a weakening of
the pressure gradient over the northern Gulf on Tuesday should
allow the coastal flood threat to ease by Tuesday night. Temperature
spread also remains limited between the various model solutions, 
so have opted to stick with NBM deterministic values on Monday and
Tuesday. Temperatures will be near to slightly above average with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.  

The deep layer ridge axis will shift toward Texas on Wednesday and
Thursday, and winds aloft will turn more northwesterly. A weak
upper level trough axis and associated front will slide through
the area Thursday into Thursday night, but a lack of moisture 
will limit cloud development and keep rain chances near zero
percent as the front slides through. The end result is the
continuation of the dry conditions observed for much of the month.
Temperatures still exhibit little overall spread at 5 degrees or
less between the 25th and 75th percentiles in the extended range,
so the temperature forecast continues to mirror that of the NBM
deterministic output. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than
average with values rising into the low to mid 80s each afternoon.
However, a large diurnal range due to the dry air and clear skies
in place will allow temperatures to cool 25 to 30 degrees each
night resulting in lows in the 50s and 60s.  

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Continued VFR conditions at all of the terminals as a very dry and
stable airmass resides across the region. Skies will remain clear
and winds will be persistent from the east-northeast at 7 to 10
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

A tight pressure gradient across the northern Gulf in relation to
a strong surface high centered north of the area and a
strengthening low pressure system over the western Caribbean will
keep rough conditions in place across the majority of the waters
through Monday. Strong east winds of 20 to 30 knots will lead to
very rough and hazardous seas of 7 to 11 feet in the open Gulf
waters tonight through Monday due to a combination of swell and
wind waves. In the sounds and lakes, winds of 15 to 20 knots and 
waves of 2 to 5 feet are expected through the weekend. Conditions 
will finally begin to ease on Tuesday as the low to the south 
weakens. Easterly flow will fall below 15 knots and seas will
gradually improve to 2 to 4 feet offshore and 1 to 3 feet in the
lakes and sounds on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  48  78  50  80 /   0   0   0   0 
BTR  54  80  55  82 /   0   0   0   0 
ASD  49  79  50  80 /   0   0   0   0 
MSY  62  77  63  78 /   0   0   0   0 
GPT  53  79  56  80 /   0   0   0   0 
PQL  48  79  49  80 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT 
     Saturday for LAZ069-070-076-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT 
     Saturday for MSZ086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ534-536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG