176 
FXUS64 KLIX 181718
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1218 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Cool, crisp, and dry conditions continue across the region this 
morning. Only slight change from the prior forecast at least early
this morning would be adding some patchy smoke over portions of 
Harrison County with fire(s) upstream continuing to smolder. This 
smoke is getting trapped under the inversion, but should quickly 
mix out as the sunrises and surface heating takes place. 
Otherwise, today will be slightly warmer as heights and 
thicknesses increase in response to an upper ridge moves west 
into the region. Otherwise, RH values will continue to remain on 
the low side today so additional fires may ignite, but thankfully 
winds will be on the lackluster side limiting spread and reducing 
the need for fire weather headlines across the region. Going into 
the weekend low level moisture is forecast to increase gradually 
and the warming trend will continue through the end of the short 
term period. The only other concern on Saturday would be the
easterly fetch across the Gulf of Mexico helping pile up water on
those eastern facing coastlines. Guidance so far show a more 
borderline minor coastal flood potential in those favored 
locations and lower spots with this potential highest during high 
tide cycles and may continue into the long term period...see long 
term for more. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The region will remain under a 593dam H5 ridge that settles across
the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a 1030mb high 
pressure drops southward across the Ozarks and eventually settling
over the Tennessee River Valley. This feature along with lower 
pressures across the western Caribbean will tighten pressure 
gradient across the Gulf of Mexico. We'll need to watch the 
potential for minor coastal flooding during high tide cycles along
the east facing coastlines as this strong easterly fetch persists
into early Sunday. At this point, the strongest winds will remain
south of the coast, but enough water could pile up to again cause
some minor coastal flooding in those favored areas such as Shell 
Beach and coastal Hancock County.

Going into the start of the new workweek, upper level ridging will
remain, but gradually spread westward into Texas. This will
transition our upper pattern to a dry northwest flow within the 
northeast periphery of the weak upper high. That said, with 
heights and thicknesses slightly elevated, temperatures will be a 
degree or two above average early to mid week next week with 
temperatures climbing into the lower to middle 80s with some 
places approaching 90F by Thursday. Otherwise, with the dry upper 
levels and nothing to provide lift, rain chances remain nil. 
(Frye) 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Continued VFR conditions at all of the terminals as a very dry and
stable airmass resides across the region. Skies will remain clear
and winds will be persistent from the east-northeast at 7 to 10
knots. PG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Mostly VFR conditions expected through the forecast period for all
terminals. However, did need to add smoke to GPT from a nearby
fire. This should mix out shortly after sunrise bringing VIS back
to VFR. Otherwise, mostly light northeast or easterly winds 
through the cycle. (Frye) 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Winds and seas will remain elevated across the local Gulf waters.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Saturday morning,
but will likely need to be extended as an easterly swell increases
with a strong easterly fetch develops over the local Gulf waters.
Pressure gradient between lower pressures over the western
Caribbean and high pressure to the north will begin to decrease
going into the second half of the weekend and especially early
next week as high pressure settles southward into the region.
(Frye) 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  77  48  79 /   0   0   0   0 
BTR  54  82  55  84 /   0   0   0   0 
ASD  52  79  53  81 /   0   0   0   0 
MSY  62  77  62  79 /   0   0   0   0 
GPT  54  79  55  80 /   0   0   0   0 
PQL  52  82  52  84 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ534-536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RDF