893 
FXUS63 KLMK 132310
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
710 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Breezy and turning much cooler tonight. 

*  A few light rain showers possible Tuesday, mainly in the 
   Bluegrass region. 

*  Widespread frost likely Wednesday and Thursday morning. There is 
   a low probability of sub-freezing temperatures, especially on 
   Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

The surface low currently over northeast Ohio will continue pushing 
eastward into Pennsylvania this afternoon. Meanwhile, the trailing 
cold front associated with this feature will steadily sink NW to SE 
through the area. The front is currently analyzed along and just 
north of the Ohio River, and will continue to gradually sink 
southeastward through the remainder of the afternoon and early 
evening. Gusty winds have been common out ahead of the front, with 
most peak gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. A few spots will see 
continue to see some gusts over 30 mph, but they won't be as common. 
 
Later this evening, there could be some initiation along the frontal 
boundary both in part due to an upslope component kicking in on the 
terrain of eastern KY, or the arrival of a mid level impulse. The 
front should be mostly through our area by then, but will hang onto 
an isolated chance down around Lake Cumberland around or just after 
sunset. 

Much cooler tonight with lows dropping down well into the 40s in the 
post frontal regime. Monday brings continued dry conditions and a 
much cooler day! Steady, to slightly gusty, NW winds will along with 
increased cloud cover, especially across the NE 2/3 of our CWA. 
Highs only expected in the low 60s for most, with some in the NE 
likely not making it out of the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Monday night, the axis of an upper ridge will be just west of the 
Rockies, and as it stretches north into Canada it will bend to the 
east around an upper trough dropping south through the Ohio Valley. 
It's this trough that will push a reinforcing cold front south 
towards southern Indiana and central Kentucky. The front will mainly 
bring extra cloud cover the the area, and with light west-northwest 
winds, low temperatures are expected to drop into the low to mid 40s 
overnight. 

Tuesday, as the front continues to work south, northeastern parts of 
the CWA will see a chance of a shower or two, mainly from near 
Madison, Indiana through the greater Bluegrass region of Kentucky. 
Later in the day, as the front passes, winds will veer towards the 
north as a surface high gets pushed south through the Midwest. The 
high pressure with the upper ridge moving into the area will clear 
skies. 

Tuesday night, cold air advection will lead to temperatures falling 
into low to mid 30s across the CWA, resulting in widespread frost 
across the region. As the upper ridge and surface high pass over the 
Lower Ohio Valley, high temperatures will be limited to mostly the 
50s on Wednesday before slightly warming to the low to mid 60s on 
Thursday. Low temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday nights will see 
many areas in the low to mid 30s, resulting in many areas seeing 
frost. 

For the end of the work week, the surface high will move east of the 
CWA, bringing warm air advection back to the CWA. Highs will return 
to the upper 60s to low 70s on Friday before the low to mid 70s for 
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Cold front has pushed south of the terminals, but a secondary cold 
advection surge is evident in central Indiana. Main question is how 
much mixing is still in play when the cold air is reinforced later 
this evening. Will account for this by holding on to gusts just 
short of 20 kt at SDF, LEX and HNB until close to midnight. 

Winds will be light from the W-NW overnight, and then pick up again 
as mixing increases mid-morning on Monday. Gusts near 20 kt across 
the board, with at least sct strato-cu. Being closer to the upper 
low, LEX could see a ceiling, but it will remain VFR with bases near 
4K feet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...RAS