421 
FXUS63 KIND 120709
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
309 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather conditions today with increasing mid-high clouds

- Above normal temperatures Saturday and Sunday

- Coldest air of the Fall for early next week with frost expected on 
  a few mornings 

- Other than low chances for showers across the northern counties 
Saturday night into Monday night, dry weather will persist

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Current satellite and surface observations show mundane weather 
conditions across central Indiana as high pressure remains in 
control. The high pressure center has gradually shifted further 
southeast though with high clouds from an approaching impulse 
beginning to overspread the region. Stronger winds overnight has led 
to milder temperatures compared to yesterday and most locations are 
currently in the mid-upper 50s.

The milder start to the day combined with increasing southwesterly 
flow will keep temperatures abnormally warm once again. Look for 
highs to reach the 80s by this afternoon. Despite some increase in 
clouds early today, quiet weather conditions will persist due to 
very dry air in the low-mid levels. A front is expected to move 
through late tonight which previously looked to have some potential 
to produce light showers over the area. Latest CAMs have trended 
towards a dry forecast due to the significant amount of low-level 
dry air in place. While there is enough low-level convergence along 
the front for showers, the lack of moisture greatly limits 
confidence in measurable precipitation overnight. POPs were lowered 
to less than 20% tonight for these reasons.  
  
More likely than not dry weather conditions will persist through the 
short term. Breezy southwesterly flow is expected to keep 
temperatures quite warm tonight in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024

A cold front will be making it's way across central Indiana at the 
start of the long term. Sunday will be the warmest day of the 
period, with temperatures dropping behind the line during the 
afternoon and overnight. The low producing the front will be 
tracking north of the area and will contain much of the moisture 
near its center. Some rain may creep into our far northern counties 
at times Sunday through Monday night or even Tuesday. Moisture on 
the backside of the low may have a better chance of bringing rain 
down to central Indiana, drawing additional moisture from Lake 
Michigan. But, the antecedent airmass is so dry it will be 
difficult to overcome and model soundings continue to show a stout
dry column over the coming days. 

Monday through Wednesday will be the coolest days of the season so 
far with highs in the 50s and 60s and lows potentially near frost 
and freezing temperatures. Best chance for frost will be Tuesday and 
Wednesday nights, so sensitive plants may need to be covered. 

Surface high pressure will be moving across the eastern US through 
the work week, allowing for another mostly dry week. A few days 
could potentially see some breezy afternoons, and paired with Min
RH values near 30% for the end of the week, elevated fire danger 
will be a concern. 

Going into next weekend, another system looks to approach the area. 
Temperatures will warm gradually ahead of it and then we may see 
precipitation arrive mid to late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Impacts: 

- Wind gusts around 18-23 kts possible this evening and tonight

- Non-convective LLWS likely by 04-07Z tonight

Discussion:

VFR conditions will continue through this evening. Winds should 
remain light through daybreak before picking up later today. 
Expect southwesterly sustained winds around 07-12kts during the
day and into tonight. Gusts around 18-23 kts are possible 
tonight. There is a chance for higher gusts, but confidence in 
enough mixing occurring to produce these higher winds is low due 
to the diurnal timing. 

Non-convective LLWS is also likely tonight by 04-07Z as a strong 
nocturnal LLJ develops. Winds just above the surface around 1500- 
2000ft are expected to be around 45-50kts from 220-250 degrees.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Melo