971 
FXUS64 KMOB 100448
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1148 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024

VFR conditions next 24 hrs. Winds northeast generally 5 to 10 
kts, except coastal areas at 10 to 15 kts and occasionally gusty.
/10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 618 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024/ 

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024

A few clouds streaming southwest over the central Gulf coast. No
bkn/ovc cigs expected with VFR conditions next 24hrs. A general
north to northeast wind 5 to 10 kts. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 205 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024/ 

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Per the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center,
Hurricane Milton which is currently located about 130 miles west 
of Ft. Myers, Florida will make landfall along the west-central 
coast of Florida tonight and move off the east coast of Florida 
and into the Atlantic on Thursday. The forecast area meanwhile 
remains in a dry, deep layer northeasterly flow and have continued
with a dry forecast through the period. Lows tonight range from 
the mid 50s well inland to the lower/mid 60s near the coast, then 
Thursday night will be a bit cooler and range from the lower 50s 
inland to the lower 60s at the coast. Highs on Thursday will be in
the lower to mid 80s. A High Risk of rip currents continues 
through Thursday, then a moderate risk follows for Thursday night.
Have made adjustments based on the latest data for the High Surf 
Advisory which begins at 10 pm this evening, then ends at 1 pm 
Thursday due to surf heights subsiding through the afternoon. /29

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Per the latest track from the National Hurricane Center, Milton is
expected to move well off into the western Atlantic and weaken
through Monday. Dry conditions are expected to continue over the
forecast area meanwhile, and persist into Wednesday as well as
deep layer moisture remains limited. A cold front will approach 
the area from the north on Sunday, then moves through Sunday night
into Monday morning and ushers progressively cooler air into the 
region. Highs on Friday range mostly from the upper 70s to lower 
80s, then a warming trend follows through Sunday when highs will 
be in the mid to upper 80s. Similar highs follow for Monday, then 
cooler air in the wake of the cold front limit highs Tuesday to 
mostly in the 70s, then for Wednesday highs range from the upper 
60s well inland to the lower 70s elsewhere. Lows Friday night
range from the upper 40s well inland to the upper 50s at the coast
then moderate through Sunday night to range from the upper 50s
inland to the mid 60s at the coast. With the cooler air brought
into the area by the cold front, by Tuesday night lows range from
the mid 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. /29

MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Major Hurricane Milton is anticipated to make landfall along the
west-central coast of Florida tonight, then cross the Florida
peninsula and move off the east coast of Florida and over the
western Atlantic on Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in 
effect for the near shore waters until 1 pm Thursday and until 1 
am Friday for the 20-60 nm portion, although it's possible that 
the 20-60 nm portion may need to be extended a bit later in the 
night to allow for winds to sufficiently subside. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      62  86  56  83  54  83  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Pensacola   65  85  61  81  57  81  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Destin      64  84  62  80  59  81  62  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Evergreen   57  85  51  81  48  82  52  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Waynesboro  57  84  53  82  50  83  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Camden      57  82  51  79  49  80  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Crestview   57  85  51  81  47  81  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$

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