310 
FXUS64 KLIX 081804
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
104 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

We will need to start with the 63F dew pt line for finding the best 
dew pt gradient that shows the leading edge of this sfc cold front. 
Two main items that most like to associate with cold frontal 
passages just won't work for finding this one. One of those is 
northerly wind direction, this wind direction has already been 
established well ahead of this cold front. The next thing is a line 
or some type of cloud cover, but since the high on to the south side 
and north side of this front are bridging the front so strongly down 
to 800mb and the fact that the high ahead of the front was being 
squeezed between the front and the hurricane's outer envelope, the 
sfc-800mb air is just too dry and suppression above that is just not 
allowing even a line of clouds to be produced. So, the only thing 
that can find this front is dew pt gradient since temp gradients are 
weak as well. Eventhough dew pt temps did slowly fall to 63F, once 
they reached this temp, they quickly fell into the 50s. This is also 
allowing the air to cool as well. The somewhat cool air being 
advected with this will help keep temps in the low to mid 80s with 
the hot spots being around 90F as one approaches the Miss/Bama 
border. But the morning and evening hours will be quite refreshing 
and maybe even a bit cool(dare i say). But it will be quite 
enjoyable as temps warm toward afternoon. No rain with much of the 
same tomorrow as well. Winds could be breezy along the coast with 
northerly winds reaching 20mph in gusts.

We will cancel the coastal flood advisory for at least the next 24 
hours as tides should fall away with the frontal passage today and 
tonight. But as this front stalls and the dynamic fetch strengthens 
over the next 36 hours, this may be back as a headline for late Wed 
night into early Thu morning but again only minor issues expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

The nice dry conditions are expected to continue well into the 
extended fcast. By next Mon or Tue, we should see another cold front 
move to or past the area. This front should also be dry as high 
pressure on both sides bridges this front. So basically, there are 
no issues seen for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Light winds and clear skies will maintain VFR conditions through 
this cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

N winds will remain over all waters but will rise as one transits 
from north to south and especially the farther away from shore.
Overall sea heights could be higher today through Wed with the 
contribution of swell from Milton. We will keep caution statements 
up for the nearshore waters and advisories for the outer waters into 
Thu. The main culprit for these flags will be overall seas made up 
of mainly swell from Milton. This addition of swell from the south 
and wind waves from the north is causing a confused sea which causes 
numerous peaks to form. So we should find seas of 4 to 6 feet in our 
nearshore waters starting today with even higher seas past the 20nm 
mark. Wind waves are contributing but not nearly as much as swell as 
winds should remain around 20kt or so. Northerly winds will remain 
around 20-25kt as a cold front moves through and the sfc high behind 
the front interacts with the overall lower pressure farther south. 
Some of the outer most waters could have winds around gale force for 
a short time Wed into Wed night as Milton makes its closest approach 
to our waters. While Milton traverses the gulf, conditions will 
rapidly worsen the farther offshore one travels for the next few 
days. Winds and seas will slowly lower strarting Thu. Some swell 
could still be in the wave sets by late Wed but winds will be 
lowered to around 10kt and overall seas will subside as well through 
the remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  56  84  58  84 /   0   0   0   0 
BTR  59  88  62  89 /   0   0   0   0 
ASD  61  88  62  87 /   0   0   0   0 
MSY  67  86  68  85 /   0   0   0   0 
GPT  64  88  65  86 /   0   0   0   0 
PQL  64  91  63  89 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 4 PM CDT Thursday 
     for GMZ550-552-555-557.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ570-572-575-
     577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 4 PM CDT Thursday 
     for GMZ552-555-557.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...TE