515 
FXUS63 KIND 081333
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
933 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated areas of mid to upper 30s tomorrow morning 

- Above normal temperatures will be common mid to late week, before 
colder air moves in early next week. 

- Other than a few isolated showers on Sunday, dry weather will 
  continue.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

With the PBL still decoupled this morning, surface dew points have 
largely been higher than origonally expected, including isolated 
ground fog in a few locations. Otherwise, the forecast is largely 
intact. Some minor adjustments have been made to increase the 
diurnal swing this afternoon given deeper mixing and drying of the
PBL. Current expectation is for widespread highs in the low 70s 
with isolated locations reaching the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Benign Autumn weather continues for Central Indiana as high pressure 
remains the dominant weather influence through the week. 

Latest satellite and observations show surface high pressure 
centered just to the west over Illinois with clear skies and winds 
ranging from calm to 5 mph. Optimal conditions for radiational 
cooling have resulted in temperatures plummeting 25-30 degrees into 
the 40s. Low lying and wind sheltered areas, especially in the 
Wabash Valley, have even dipped into the upper 30s as of 230 AM EDT. 

High pressure slowly slides southeastward over the region today with 
the weather conditions forecast to be nearly a carbon copy of 
yesterday. Ample sunshine and further drying of the surface will 
result in highs reaching the low to mid 70s once again. Very light 
winds through the column will likely limit the over fire weather 
threat; however very dry conditions will still persist with 
afternoon RH values potentially dropping near critical fire weather 
thresholds in the lower 20 percent range.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Wednesday through Friday...

Quiet weather will continue through the remainder of the work week 
with a dry atmosphere remaining in place. 

During this period, an upper trough will be to the northeast of the 
area with an upper ridge to the west. 

As some upper energy moves through the trough to the northeast, a 
surge of cooler air will move into the northeastern USA. Indiana 
will get sideswiped by this, which will lower temperatures a few 
degrees for parts of the forecast area on Thursday.

On Friday, the upper ridge to the west will nose into the area, 
allowing more warm air to move in. 

The result will generally be a continued trend of above normal 
temperatures, with highs in the 70s, reaching around 80 for parts of 
the area on Friday. 

Mixing in this dry airmass will bring down dewpoints in the 
afternoons. Blended guidance doesn't capture this well, so will 
lower dewpoints some. This will lead to low humidity levels. The 
ground and vegetation will continue to dry. Will continue to monitor 
for fire weather threats, but lighter winds will help keep 
conditions from being too elevated.

Saturday and beyond...

The nose from the upper ridge will shift a little south on Saturday, 
allowing a surface cold front to move into the area. However, it 
will have no moisture to work with. The cooler air with this front 
will remain well north, so warm temperatures will continue on 
Saturday.

A surface low will move along the front as another upper trough 
moves in on Sunday. Moisture will continue to be limited, so only 
isolated showers will be possible with this system. Warm 
temperatures will continue as cold advection doesn't really kick in 
until late in the day.

Behind the system, colder air will move in and return the area to 
near or below normal temperatures early next week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 634 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Impacts: 

 - None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Surface high 
pressure over the northern plains will build southeast toward the 
Ohio Valley keeping conditions clear and calm. Forecast soundings 
continue to show a column void of any saturation. Thus VFR 
conditions with unlimited Cigs and light NW to calm winds.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Updike
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...CM