782 
FXUS63 KIND 080538
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
138 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather expected through this week

- Afternoon RH values between 20 and 30 percent will create
  slightly elevated fire weather danger through Friday

- Seasonable temperatures early this week, warming trend back to
  upper 70s mid-late week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Forecast is largely on track so only minor adjustments were needed. 
Much like last night, clear skies and dry air will allow radiational 
cooling to drop temps overnight into the 40s. Winds will be light 
and somewhat variable with a predominate direction from the N/NW. 
Despite the light winds and clear skies, no fog is expected given 
just how dry to column of air is over the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Synopsis: 

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong and large high 
pressure in place centered over IA and MO. This high was in control 
of Indiana's weather, providing cool north flow. Clear skies were 
found across the state and much of the region due to the high. Dew 
point temperatures across the area were in the dry 40s. Aloft, 
strong ridging remained in place over the Rockies while a deep upper 
low was found over Hudson Bay. This was resulting in northwest 
Pacific flow spilling into Indiana from the northern plains.

Tonight and Tuesday -

Little change is expected in the overall weather pattern over the 
next 24-36 hours. Models show the large and strong upper ridging in 
place over the Rockies slowly drifting to the high plains by late 
Tuesday. This will keep the same persistent pattern in place aloft 
with continued cool NW flow and subsidence spilling into Indiana and 
the Ohio Valley. This will result in continued strengthening of the 
surface high pressure system to the east as it slowly drifts to the 
middle Mississippi valley by Tuesday afternoon and continued light 
winds across Central Indiana.  Forecast soundings continue to 
suggest a dry column through the period. Thus a clear night and a 
sunny Tuesday are expected. There is little in the way of 
temperature advection tonight and Tuesday. Thus we will expect lows 
and highs at or just above persistence. Look for lows tonight in the 
lower to middle 40s and highs on Tuesday in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Tuesday Night Through Friday.

Dry and quiet weather is expected through the rest of the work-week 
with broad ridging in place. The primary focus through the week will 
be on the slightly elevated fire weather conditions with daily 
minimum RH values between 20 and 30 percent.  Winds at the top of 
the boundary layer will be fairly modest at around 15-20kts which 
would keep surface wind gusts generally less than 15 mph. The 
strongest winds will generally be across the northern counties with 
wind speeds gradually dropping as you move further to the south.

Temperatures will be fairly persistent through the week with daily 
highs in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows in the 40s. Will be 
dropping the afternoon dew points to account for known biases in 
model dew points in the dry and well mixed environment that is 
expected. With most of the area having been dry for the last 10 
days, drought conditions will continue to worsen even with the 
robust rainfall that fell with the tropical remnants.

Saturday Through Monday.

The pattern will begin to shift going into the weekend as surface 
flow becomes southerly in the aftermath of the landfall of Hurricane 
Milton, but otherwise no impacts from the tropical system are 
expected as it moves back into the Atlantic Ocean and pushes 
eastward. The southerly flow won't have a true Gulf connection 
though which will limit the increase in surface moisture. There are 
signs in a stronger upper level wave within the broader 
northwesterly flow late this weekend into early next week, but there 
is little agreement within the ensembles that precipitation will be 
as far south as central Indiana with much greater probabilities 
towards Michigan.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Impacts: 

 - None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Surface high 
pressure over the northern plains will build southeast toward the 
Ohio Valley keeping conditions clear and calm. Forecast soundings 
continue to show a column void of any saturation. Thus VFR 
conditions with unlimited Cigs and light to calm winds.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...CM