National Weather Service Raw Text Product

902 
FXUS63 KIND 050456
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1256 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry weather through the weekend

- Extended period of dry weather likely to last through next week

- Warmer than normal temperatures through Sunday then cooling for 
  early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

An upper wave will continue to move southeast across central Indiana 
the, the remainder of the afternoon. This feature was rounding the 
base of a Great Lakes short wave that was seen nicely on H2O vapor 
imagery. Meanwhile, a weak front was drifting south across central 
Indiana. 

Earlier, Illinois convection dissipated as it moved into 
the upper Wabash Valley due to the very dry boundary layer seen in 
place in Hi-Res soundings. GOES-16 visible satellite loop and obs 
were showing mid and high clouds progressing slowly south and east 
across the upper Wabash Valley. Look for some mid and high clouds to 
linger tonight in a warm advection pattern. Then, the cloud cover is 
expected to decrease on Saturday as surface high pressure and modest 
ridging move in and provide subsidence and soundings show good 
drying throughout the column. 

Northeast winds will veer to southeast and then south as the western 
part of the front stalls and returns northeast in response to the 
approach of a sharp central Canadian and northern Plains trough. 
This along with solar heating will allow temperatures to bounce back 
to the upper 70s and lower 80s, Saturday afternoon, from overnight 
lows in the 50s tonight. These temperatures match up favorable with 
the DESI grand ensemble 25th to 75th percentiles 2m temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Expect dry conditions through the extended period as surface high 
pressure remains dominant for much of next week. An upper trough and 
associated cold front moving through Sunday may bring the 
opportunity for a stray shower, but dry weather continues to look 
more likely. The reason for this being that surface high pressure 
across the south should inhibit gulf moisture return. Increasing 
S/SW ahead of the front will result in one more abnormally warm day 
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Breezy conditions are also 
expected due to a tightening pressure gradient and deep mixing. Peak 
gusts of 25-30 mph are possible in the afternoon. 

Cooler weather returns Sunday night into Monday behind the departing 
cold front. Aloft, guidance suggest troughing persists through much 
of next week helping to keep highs near seasonal. Lows will 
generally be in the 40s thanks to efficient diurnal cooling. Surface 
high pressure builds back in late Sunday and looks to remain 
anchored over the region through at least Friday limiting any hope 
for rain. Rain from Helene's remnants last week alleviated drought 
concerns some with most of the area now in D0 (abnormally dry). 
However, dry weather over the next 7 days and below normal 
precipitation expected in the 8-14 day range will likely lead to 
worsening drought conditions yet again.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1256 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Impacts:

- None

Discussion: 

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Frequent ceilings 
of BKN080-BKN120 will continue into mid-morning before mixing out. 

Winds will become southeast early in the daylight hours then 
increase to around 10kt.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...50