094 
FXUS63 KIND 040506
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
106 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated fog possible tonight, especially south and east of 
  Indianapolis

- A few light showers cannot be ruled out Friday across northwest 
  portions of central Indiana And again Sunday across the NE and E

- Extended period of dry weather likely to last through next week

- Warmer than normal temperatures through Sunday then cooling for 
  early next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024

- Mostly Clear and Cool Overnight
- Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Strong high pressure was found along the east Coast of the CONUS. 
Another large high was found over the northern plains. A weak 
frontal boundary stretched between these two systems, from southern 
Ontario to to SE WI  and northern MO. Indiana remained largely under 
the control of the high pressure system to the east as GOES16 showed 
mainly clear skies across the state. Winds were plainly light and 
variable across the area, and dew points were in the upper 40s and 
low 50s.

Little overall change will be expected overnight. The wave and front 
over the upper Midwest is expected to push east and southeast, but 
should not reach Central Indiana prior to 12Z. Forecast soundings 
through the night continue to suggest a very dry column with 
subsidence. Water vapor also suggest subsidence arriving into the 
area on SW flow in place aloft. Thus mostly clear skies will be 
expected through the overnight hours. Models suggest dew point 
depressions will remain large enough and with plentiful dry air 
within the lower levels, widespread fog is not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024

Expect quiet weather conditions through the short term period as 
surface high pressure remains dominant. Current surface analysis 
shows high pressure has shifted eastward towards the mid-atlantic 
states with ridging extending back into central Indiana. This has 
allowed for light southerly flow to return which has helped warm 
temperatures some on top of the clear skies and drier air. 

Efficient radiational cooling tonight will drop temperatures quickly 
after sunset. Temperatures were slightly decreased from the NBM 
which tends to underestimate cooling in these setups. Look for lows 
in the upper 40s to low 50s. By late tonight, patchy fog could 
develop over parts of the area due to light winds and clear skies. 
Considerable PBL drying once again this afternoon should limit the 
coverage of fog to mainly rural areas or those near river valleys 
across southern portions of central Indiana. 

Look for any fog that develops to quickly mix out after daybreak 
Friday. A weak front will move in during the day Friday. Limited 
moisture return and overall forcing should greatly limit rain 
chances. In addition, forecast soundings show a lot of dry air in 
the low levels further limiting the potential for precipitation. A 
few showers cannot be ruled out across northwest portions of central 
Indiana before the front becomes very diffuse. Expect a 
north/northeasterly wind shift to accompany the front towards midday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024

The long term period will start out with SW winds and WAA ahead of 
an approaching cold front bring above normal temperatures this 
weekend. The front itself should move through late Sunday and may 
bring some light rain but chances are low as models show much of the 
moisture looks to be displaced away from the area. 

A cooler and crisper airmass will settle in for next week behind the 
cold front due to a surface high slowly moving through and NW flow 
aloft. The high will bring several days of sunny skies with the 
beautiful fall weather. Highs will be near 70 for next week with 
lows in the 40s to near 50.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 106 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Impacts:

- Low confidence for patchy ground fog overnight.

Discussion: 

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light winds and 
clear skies may lead to some patchy ground fog, but confidence in 
this occurring at a TAF site remains low.

Otherwise, some mid clouds will arrive today from decaying mid level 
precipitation. Wouldn't rule out some sprinkles near KLAF, but no 
impacts are expected. Winds will become northeast during the day at 
around 10kt or less.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...50