862 
FXUS64 KLIX 220438
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Seasonably dry air is in place tonight with precipitable water
values in the 1.2 to 1.4 range. No significant changes needed to
the forecast. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Tonight through Tuesday, conditions will be pretty dry overall, 
looking at the models, as high pressure continues to build over the 
area. An isolated shower or two will be possible during peak daytime 
heating hours over the next few days, but generally, it will be dry 
and warm. Highs are forecast in the mid 90s with heat index values 
in the low 100s. While it won't meet heat advisory criteria, be sure 
to stay hydrated if you will be outside the next few days as it will 
be a bit warmer than normal for this time of year. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

As we head toward mid-week, there is still a lot of 
uncertainty in the models and confidence is lower than usual. But in 
general, by Wednesday, there is the potential for a tropical system 
to develop in the region by the Yucatan Peninsula. Currently, there 
is a 60% chance for development in the next 7 days for this 
disturbance. If it forms, it is expected to move into the Gulf 
sometime late week. At the same time, a frontal system is expected 
to move through the area late next week as this ridge moves eastward 
out of our area. These two systems will be dependent on each other 
and there are still numerous uncertainties surrounding the timing of 
the front and how it relates to potential development of a tropical 
system. It is far too soon to say any specifics or details about the 
tropical system. And as for the front, expect increased rainfall 
chances toward the end of the week, regardless. We will be 
monitoring the potential for tropical development closely over the 
next week. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Generally VFR conditions through the forecast period. While there
could possibly be a few patches of light fog around sunrise, they
should be brief, if they occur at all. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Benign marine conditions expected through Thursday. Winds 
will be easterly to southeasterly and moderate (10-15kts) through 
Thursday morning. Starting Thursday, winds increase to 15-25kts and 
easterly to northeasterly. However, a lot of the late week forecast 
is still highly uncertain and will be dependent upon the potential 
for tropical development. The hurricane center has an area 
outlooked at 60% for tropical development over the next 7 days 
over the NW Caribbean and southern gulf. Remain updated with 
future forecasts concerning this area over the next several days.
MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  91  69  91 /   0   0   0   0 
BTR  72  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0 
ASD  72  91  71  91 /   0   0   0   0 
MSY  75  90  74  90 /   0   0   0   0 
GPT  73  89  72  89 /   0   0   0   0 
PQL  72  94  71  93 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...MSW