505 
FXUS63 KGID 110903
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
403 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected Wednesday
  and Thursday afternoons across portions of the area.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue across the region
  through the next week.

- Dry conditions for much of the forecast period. The next
  chances for precipitation will be Friday night and Sunday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

The main weather concern over the next couple of days will be the 
potential for near-critical fire weather conditions. Fuels are not 
favorable for rapid-fire growth at this time. However, unseasonably 
warm temperatures, paired with low relative humidity and gusty winds 
will result in some concerns. Normal high temperatures for this time 
of the year are in the low 80s. For Wednesday afternoon, relative 
humidity values are expected to fall into the 20-25% range with 
south to south-southeasterly winds gusting to around 20-30MPH. High 
temperatures today will range from the mid-80s to the low 90s.

Thursday, winds are expected to be slightly stronger while relative 
humidity values will be higher. Relative humidity values will range 
from 30-40% for most areas, while winds gusting to around 25-35MPH 
are expected. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected with highs 
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will range from the upper 50s to mid-
60s.

The unseasonably warm temperatures continue into Friday. Southwest 
flow will be in place over the region, with a closed upper low 
moving north into Saskatchewan. Fire weather is not currently 
expected to be an issue as weaker winds and higher relative humidity 
values will be in place. However, there will be a chance (20-30%) of 
a few showers and thunderstorms Friday evening into early Saturday 
morning. At this time, severe weather is not anticipated.

Cooler air filters into the region on Saturday, as an upper trough 
pushes in from the west. This will bring a short-lived return to 
normal temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s.

Models become a little more uncertain heading into the start of the 
week. Southwest flow remains in place through hte end of the 
extended forecast. We will see a warm up, with temperatures 
returning to the mid to upper 80s for many locations. A shortwave 
trough is expected to move through the region on Monday. Models are 
showing the potential of another disturbance moving into the region 
toward mid-week. There remains considerable disagreement on timing 
and track of this system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Continued
mentions of low-level wind shear through sunrise, as south-
southwest winds aloft will remain strong, while surface winds 
will be around 5-10kts from the south. A few mid to high level
clouds persist through the forecast period. Winds remain from
the south for much of the period, increasing to 10-15kts in the
afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Wekesser