742 
FXUS63 KIND 070516
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
116 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool today with lows tonight in the upper 30s to low 40s.

- Dry weather through the next week with gradually increasing 
temperatures

- Dry air will create slightly elevated fire weather danger for much 
of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Today.

A dry and quiet weather day is expected for today with the main 
focus being gusty winds of 15-20 mph during the afternoon and early 
evening hour ahead of surface high pressure building across the 
area. Model soundings show another day of deep mixing with the PBL 
at around 5-6kft which should also allow for another afternoon of 
dropping dew points. With the strong northerly flow and very cold 
temperatures aloft, expect to see temperatures struggle to rise out 
of the mid 60s even with the sunny skies. Diurnally driven cu looks 
to develop at the top of the boundary layer by mid afternoon, but 
this should quickly dissipate after sunset to leave clear skies for 
the overnight. 

Tonight.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the low to mid 40s 
across north central Indiana as a surface high pressure quickly 
builds behind the exited front. Clear skies, calm winds, and dry 
surface air will create ideal radiational cooling conditions which 
should bring the coldest temperatures of the season so far. In these 
ideal conditions, temperatures usually end up on the lowest end of 
model guidance which puts the upper 30s in play for areas near 
Muncie. While a frost looks unlikely, highly localized areas could 
drop into the mid 30s which could damage highly sensitive 
vegetation.  The NAM continues to be the most bullish model when it 
comes to overnight lows even if it is a little overdone, so trended 
the forecast towards that solution.

Another thing to continue to monitor will be the potential for 
patchy fog towards daybreak as dew depressions drop to near 0 
under calm winds and clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Sunday through Wednesday.

Another breezy and colder than normal day expected for Sunday as the 
parent low pressure system from Friday gradually pushes eastward. By 
Monday, the surface flow will have shifted back to a more 
southwesterly direction with the aforementioned upper level low now 
off the East Coast.  The trend in the upper level ridge building 
earlier in the week continued in the overnight model runs which 
would bring temperatures back to normal now as early as Tuesday with 
above normal temperatures then through the rest of the week.

Thursday Through Friday.

By Thursday the upper level ridge will be centered over the Ohio 
Valley which should bring afternoon highs well into the upper 80s 
and potentially as high as 90.  With the exacerbating drought 
conditions and very dry air mass in place, there will likely be 
large diurnal temperature swings, so have trended overnight lows to 
the lower end of guidance and the afternoon highs towards the higher 
end. Fire weather conditions will begin to become a greater concern 
as well as fuels continue to dry out and afternoon RH values drop 
into the 20-30 percent range.  The main limiting factor to a higher 
end fire threat will be the generally surface winds as models show 
near calm winds through much of the column.

This extended dry stretch will also favor a gradual exacerbation of 
the ongoing abnormally dry conditions and will likely lead to an 
expansion in drought coverage further to the northeast from its 
location across the Vincennes area and also across northeastern 
Indiana. Looking beyond Friday, rain chances continue to look 
minimal until early in the following week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Impacts:

-Northerly wind gusts to 20kts this afternoon.

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through the TAF periods with clear skies 
outside of diurnal cu this afternoon.  Winds will generally remain 
northerly at 5-10kts through the period outside of 16Z to 01Z when 
winds will occasionally gust to 20kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...White