577 
FXUS64 KMOB 040950
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
450 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024

A wet pattern sets up today through the end of the work week as 
southerly flow around a weak area of low pressure in the northwest
Gulf brings deep layer moisture into the area. Precipitable water
values in the 2-2.5 inch range will move into the area this 
afternoon and continue through Friday. This increased moisture 
combined with a developing trough over the eastern states on 
Friday will lead to the development of scattered to numerous 
showers and thunderstorms. The highest rain chances will be across
the southern third of the area with lower POPs to the north. 
Severe storms are not expected due to the saturated profile aloft 
along with weak shear. However, depending on where the heavier 
rain sets up, localized flooding issues cannot be ruled out. The 
good news is that high temps will be 10-15 degrees below normal 
due to the increased cloud cover and rainfall. /13

&&

.SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024

Friday night into the weekend, a mean upper level trough moves over 
the Southeast, with a strong embedded shortwave trough moving off. A 
surface boundary that has organized over the north-central Gulf 
coast moves south over the Gulf before stalling, to varying extents. 
Dry, somewhat cooler, northerly air moves south over the forecast 
area in the wake of the front. By Sunday, moisture levels vary 
significantly in the deterministic guidance, depending on where the 
front stalls. From around 0.5" well inland to 1" along the coast to 
0.5" well inland to around 1.5" south of I-10. The ensembles and 
about half of the deterministic guidance leans towards the latter, 
so have left PoPs in south of I-65 through the weekend into the 
coming week. With the drier air pushing further south west of the 
Mobile River, have left the higher PoPs further inland east of the 
Bay. 

Temperatures rebound from the Near Term well below seasonal to 
closer to seasonal norms in the Near Term to closer to, but still a 
bit below seasonal norms in the coming week due to the northerly 
flow. High temperatures ranging from around 80 to mid 80s Saturday 
to mid to upper 80s by Tuesday. The drier air will help low 
temperatures to drop to well below seasonal norms this weekend. Low 
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s south of I-10 to the upper 
50s well north of Highway 84 to upper 60s along the coast Saturday 
and Sunday nights. Low temperatures slowly rebound in the coming 
week, to the low 60s well north of Highway 84 to low 70s near the 
coast Tuesday night.

Taking a look in the tropics, guidance continues to advertise a 
tropical wave passing south of Cuba this weekend, with some 
organizing the system into a tropical system. Guidance is 
consistent in moving the system towards the Yucatan peninsula, then 
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche.
/16 


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024

A moderate to occasionally strong flow continues 
into early Thursday. The easterly flow diminishes during the day on 
Thursday then become more northerly over the weekend. Winds and seas 
will be higher near scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms 
through the period. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      86  73  81  70  78  67  83  64 /  70  70  80  70  80  50  30  10 
Pensacola   86  75  82  73  80  71  82  69 /  70  70  80  80  80  70  40  20 
Destin      89  75  85  74  83  72  85  71 /  60  60  80  80  80  70  50  20 
Evergreen   89  70  82  67  79  65  85  61 /  20  40  60  60  70  50  20  10 
Waynesboro  88  70  77  67  75  65  82  58 /  30  40  70  50  60  30  10   0 
Camden      87  68  78  66  75  64  82  59 /  10  40  60  50  60  30  10   0 
Crestview   89  72  84  69  81  67  85  65 /  50  50  70  70  80  60  40  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

&&

$$

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