683 
FXUS63 KLMK 030726
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
326 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered showers are possible for Friday afternoon 
  and evening as a cold front passes through. 

* Gorgeous weather expected for the weekend as strong high pressure 
  sits over our area, with temperatures in the 70s and low humidity 
  for both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024

Strong surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region 
this morning will shift eastward to New England by tonight. This 
keeps us under steady ENE/E flow through the day, with a dry overall 
column. Will make note over some fairly persistent upper clouds that 
will stream overhead today and tonight. Already seeing them upstream 
on current satellite imagery. As a result, this will likely lead to 
some filtered sunshine in addition to a neutral or even slightly 
cool advective component. Decided to go on the lower side of the 
temp guidance envelope for today as a result. This puts everyone in 
the upper 70s and low 80s for highs after our cool start to the 
morning, which is a bit below normal for this time of year. Tonight, 
high clouds persist so radiational cooling won't be as favorable. As 
a result, expect milder temps with lows in the upper 50s and low 60s 
for most. Cooler spots could still dip deeper into the 50s.

There does appear to be an inverted surface trough that sets up over 
southern KY today, which models are hinting could be enough to 
trigger an isolated shower/storm or two. Do have some silent pops 
going down across the southern couple of tiers of counties, but 
overall coverage/confidence are too low to go with actual mention at 
this time. Will monitor for trends through the day, to see if some 
mentionable pops need added.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024

===== Wednesday - Friday =====

Dry weather continues for Wednesday and Thursday as sfc high 
pressure slides to our east and across the East Coast. As a result, 
return flow will increase across the region, which will allow 
temperatures to warm into the upper 80s on Wednesday, and closer to 
90s on Thursday. Dewpoints will also be a bit muggier, thanks to an 
inverted sfc trough extending into the lower Ohio Valley that will 
help pull slightly higher moisture into the region. Clouds will also 
be more abundant south of the Ohio River on Wednesday, with a mix of 
mid-level and high-level clouds expected. Thursday will feature 
mostly sunny skycover for the entire forecast area. 

Our next chance for measurable precip will not come until late in 
the day on Friday, when a cold front will approach the region as an 
upper shortwave swings towards the Great Lakes and deepens into an 
upper low. Ahead of the front, temperatures will rise into the upper 
80s, with sfc dewpoints in the mid-60s. Guidance appears to have 
come into slightly better alignment, with PoPs returning to the 
forecast by the afternoon, and persisting into Friday night as FROPA 
occurs. However, this front will lack abundant moisture, so precip 
coverage will likely end up being more isolated and scattered than 
widespread. Model soundings depict limited instability elevated off 
the sfc, with very weak flow through the column, so stronger storms 
seem off the table for this round. Friday into Saturday is our only 
chance for rain in the long term period. 


===== Saturday - Sunday =====

Isolated shower activity will linger east of I-65 into early 
Saturday morning, though we should be entirely post-frontal by 
sunrise. Strong Canadian high pressure following in the wake of the 
front will bring a reinforcing shot of drier and cooler air for the 
weekend. Gorgeous fall-like weather is coming for the weekend! 

Saturday will feature drier wx with clouds gradually clearing as the 
front departs and high pressure builds. Afternoon highs are expected 
to only reach the low to mid-70s, with dewpoints mixing to the 40s 
during the day. Another fall-like day is on tap for Sunday as the 
sfc high sits directly over our region. Temps in the 70s, dewpoints 
in the 40s, and plenty of sunshine. 

The coolest temps of the forecast period will be both Sunday morning 
and Monday morning, with lows in the 40s for most. Exceptional 
radiational cooling will help boost those already below normal temps 
to drop 10-15 degrees below climate. 


===== Next Week =====


Dry weather continues for early next week as high pressure continues 
to sit across the Ohio Valley. While dry wx remains, we'll see our 
temps begin to creep back into the 80s for both Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 156 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024

Dry and VFR through this forecast as high pressure centered to our 
north controls our region as well. Looking for a steady NE to ENE 
wind today with SCT high clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...BJS