150 
FXUS64 KMOB 252321
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
621 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

VFR conditions over the forecast area at this time will
last through the night into Monday, with easterly winds around 5 
knots becoming light. A seabreeze is expected to develop Monday
afternoon, bringing isolates showers and thunderstorms along with 
southeast to south winds around 10 knots.
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ 

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday Night) 
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

Rinse and repeat forecast through Monday as the large upper ridge
just slowly builds over the southeastern US. Yet another shot of
drier air will move in leading to PWATS to drop to around 1 inch
across most of the area. As a result, the forecast looks similar
to the last couple of days with storms just offshore, maybe
sneaking along the coast during the morning and dry during the
afternoon. A few isolated showers may be possible across the
western Florida Panhandle late in the afternoon as a small tongue
of moisture drifts into the area. Temperatures will continue to 
slowly nudge upwards as the ridge builds in leading to highs 
mainly in the mid 90s across the area. Luckily with the drier air,
lower dewpoints will continue to yield lower heat indices keeping
things in check across the area. A MODERATE risk of rip currents 
will continue through the forecast with a light to moderate east-
southeasterly surface wind. BB/03 

SHORT AND LONG TERM... 
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

To start the period, the 25.12Z global models indicate the axis 
of a mid-level pressure ridge will be in place over the Mid MS and
OH River Valleys Tuesday, persisting into the day Thursday while 
easing east across the eastern states. To close out the work week 
and moving into the weekend, a northern stream upper trof advances 
from the Upper Mid-west to across the OH River Valley and 
Appalachians, favoring the westward displacement of upper ridge to 
the west of the Lower MS River Valley. At the surface, high pressure 
looks to remain in place from the western Atlantic into the 
southeast, promoting a light and predominately easterly component to 
the local wind, which becomes onshore during the course of each day. 
It appears we will see a general diurnal pattern in thunderstorm 
development Tuesday through Thursday with chance PoPs confined to 
the southern zones closer to the sea-breeze boundary and where deep 
layer moisture is more improved. Rain chances appear isolated at 
best over the northern half of the local area where the southern 
flank of the upper ridge results in a better degree of large scale 
subsidence. Each night, PoPs taper off for land zones while edging 
higher over marine areas. For Friday through Sunday, PoPs range 30 
to 50%.

Highs range mostly 92 to 97. Heat index values may reach Heat 
Advisory criteria of 108 at a few spots near the coast mainly from
Wednesday through Friday. Lows each night look to settle in the 
lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s near the coast. 

A low risk of rip currents is expected Tuesday through Friday. /10

MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

Light to occasionally moderate easterly flow will continue through
mid-week before becoming diurnally driven during the end of the
week. Scattered showers and storms will be possible each morning.
No hazards are expected for the marine areas, except for higher
winds and seas in the vicinity of any stronger storms. BB/03

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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