485 
FXUS61 KCLE 240122
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
922 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift east away from the local area and
settle over the East Coast tonight through Monday. Weak low
pressure will cross the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday,
sweeping a cold front across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
9:30 PM Update...

Winds have decoupled with sunset, but with warm air advection
gradually beginning and high level clouds spilling over the
ridge axis, not expecting as much of a temperature drop tonight.
Current lows in the mid/upper 50s look reasonable, with some low
50s in interior portions of NE Ohio and NW PA. Have a good
night.

6:30 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track this evening with no changes
needed. Just some high clouds are expected at times as mid/upper
level moisture crests the building ridge over the Plains.

Original Discussion...

Mild temperatures continue through tonight as a surface high
begins to drift east of the local area. Overnight lows will fall
into the 50s, although locations along the immediate lakeshore
may be a few degrees warmer in the lower 60s. 

A noticeable warming trend will begin to unfold Saturday as 
southerly flow develops on the back side of the departing 
surface high and heights rise in response to an upper ridge 
building east from the Plains. Temperatures will rise into the
low to mid 80s in NW PA/NE OH with mid to upper 80s anticipated
along and west of the I-77 corridor. A few CAMs are hinting at a
weak shortwave approaching from the west late tonight into the
daytime hours Saturday, but forecast soundings indicate
substantial dry air in the lower levels so maintained a dry
forecast for the time being. The light pressure gradient will
result in a lake breeze Saturday afternoon. Humidity should be 
relatively low Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, but it 
may begin to feel a bit muggy by Saturday evening as dew points 
begin to creep into the upper 50s to lower 60s in the western 
half of the CWA. Saturday night's lows will be in the 60s; the 
warmest lows (mid to upper 60s) will be found west of I-71 and 
the coolest lows (mid to upper 50s) will occur in interior NW 
PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper ridge will start to enter the region for Sunday into 
Monday. The strength of the ridge should allow for dry conditions 
and warming temperatures into the mid-to-upper 80s on Sunday and 
then upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday. A light pressure gradient at 
the surface should allow for afternoon lake breezes to develop and 
cooler highs will be expected in the lakeshore areas and into NE 
OH/NW PA. Low temperatures will be warm in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper ridge will continue to support warming temperatures on 
Tuesday and widespread 90s should be expected for most locations. 
However, a shortwave will move through the northern end of the ridge 
and into the forecast area, supporting a weak surface cold front 
that will advance toward the area well ahead of the feature on 
Tuesday. This front could generate some showers and storms in NE OH 
and NW PA and have some low PoPs and clouds, which are also 
reflected with slightly cooler temperatures. The shortwave will pass 
on Wednesday and high pressure will build from the north, allowing 
for drier, but slightly cooler conditions. The upper ridge axis will 
move east for Thursday and allow for the next system to approach 
with some low PoPs creeping in, but it may not be until Friday or 
Saturday for a non-zero rain chance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR will continue through the TAF cycle as surface high pressure
gradually becomes centered over the Mid Atlantic and a ridge of
mid to upper level high pressure builds to the west. Just high
clouds are expected at times spilling over the building ridge
axis.

Light and variable winds tonight will become S to SW at 5-10
knots Saturday, except a lake breeze will develop again at KCLE
and KERI starting around midday, and this will veer winds to the
N by mid afternoon.

Outlook...VFR is expected through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will be in control of the region for the weekend into 
next week. Offshore flow will be favored, but lake breezes will 
likely develop every afternoon through Tuesday. A cold front will 
move through the region on Tuesday into Wednesday and winds will 
flip to the northwest by Wednesday morning. Overall, marine 
conditions will be benign and no headlines are expected.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Maines
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Sefcovic