553 
FXUS64 KMOB 211001
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
501 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday Night)
Issued at 501 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

The dry airmass that provided us with a rather pleasant day 
yesterday will linger in place for one more day. For today, 
northwesterly flow aloft continues as our region lies in between 
an upper ridge over the Southern Plains and an upper trough over 
the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure to our north will 
allow for light northerly winds to continue. With the deep 
offshore flow in place, dewpoints should once again mix down into 
the upper 50s to low 60s this afternoon. Highs today will top out 
in the low to mid 90s and with the low dewpoints, apparent 
temperatures will likely remain near the actual temperatures.

The pattern begins to change tonight and especially into Thursday as 
a shortwave, embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft, moves 
into our area. At the surface, a frontal boundary over the Gulf 
will lift into our marine zones, possibly stalling right along the
coast. Meanwhile, the high to our north will shift towards the 
Appalachians. These two features will allow for winds to turn more
easterly, helping to usher in better moisture that originated 
from the Atlantic. For tonight, dewpoints will gradually increase 
from east to west as the plume of moisture starts to enter the 
area. Areas that see the better moisture return overnight 
(generally east of I-65) will only drop into the low 70s, whereas 
areas to the west of I-65 should manage to drop into the mid to 
upper 60s due a more favorable environment for radiational cooling
to occur. As we get into Thursday, afternoon rain chances will 
return to the forecast thanks to the increase in moisture and 
increased lift from the approaching shortwave aloft. Best coverage
looks to be along and east of I-65 where the better moisture 
resides. With some drier air remaining in the mid to upper levels 
and modest deep layer shear values around 20-25 knots, cannot rule
out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds. Highs
tomorrow will be in the low 90s areawide. Rain chances decrease 
during the evening hours due to the loss of daytime heating. Lows
Thursday night will range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 
70s along the coast. The rip current risk remains low through the 
near term period. /96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday) 
Issued at 501 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

For the first half of the period, the upper-level shortwave that 
passed overhead during the near term slows down over the Florida 
Panhandle and evolves into an upper low. Meanwhile, the upper 
ridge over the Southern Plains begins to build northeast. As this 
occurs, this will help to shunt the newly formed upper low 
southwestward into the central Gulf by Sunday. At the surface, the
stationary frontal boundary looks to remain in place along our 
coast through the weekend. This boundary will serve as a focus for
scattered showers and storms to develop along during the 
afternoon hours each day. Storms should remain confined to coastal
counties and over our marine zones each day, while interior 
counties generally remain dry. This is due to northeasterly flow 
aloft wrapping around the upper low, helping to advect in some 
drier air from the Appalachians. Highs Friday and Saturday will be
in the upper 80s to low 90s, increasing to the low to mid 90s by 
Sunday as the upper low exits the region. Lows through Saturday 
night will range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s along 
the coast. A Moderate Risk of rip currents returns to our local
beaches for Friday and the weekend due to an increase in marine
winds, leading to rougher surf. 

By the start of the week, the upper low will have retrograded 
towards Texas as the upper ridge builds in from the west. This will 
mark the return of our typical summertime pattern, with afternoon
storms initially firing up along the seabreeze boundary and
additional storms developing via outflow boundary collisions. 
Subsidence from the nearby ridge should help to keep storm 
coverage rather isolated inland and scattered closer to the coast.
At the same time, this subsidence will also help to bring back 
the heat, with highs Monday and Tuesday reaching the mid to upper 
90s, along with areawide lows in the 70s. /96 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

A light to moderate offshore flow will become more variable this 
afternoon and into tonight. A moderate easterly flow will develop 
by Thursday and will persist through the weekend. Winds during the
mornings hours on Friday and Saturday may approach Exercise 
Caution levels. Daily storm chances will also return to the marine
areas starting Thursday. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      93  69  93  71  90  71  90  72 /   0   0  40  20  30  20  30  20 
Pensacola   93  74  90  73  89  73  89  75 /   0   0  60  30  40  30  40  30 
Destin      91  76  89  74  89  74  89  76 /  10  20  60  30  40  30  40  40 
Evergreen   93  69  91  68  89  66  89  69 /   0   0  50  10  10   0  10  10 
Waynesboro  91  63  92  68  91  66  92  68 /   0   0  20   0   0   0  10   0 
Camden      90  67  90  67  88  66  90  69 /   0   0  30   0   0   0   0   0 
Crestview   95  71  92  68  90  68  91  69 /  10  10  60  30  20  10  30  20 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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