015 
FXUS63 KLMK 132259
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
659 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Stormy weather returns this week, with the highest chances of 
    storms on Thursday and Friday. Isolated strong or severe storms 
    are possible. 

*   Temperatures will return to more typical summertime levels by 
    mid-to-late week, but cool slightly behind a front this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Afternoon satellite imagery and observations show partly to mostly 
sunny skies across the region.  Temperatures were in the upper 70s to 
the lower 80s, with the warm spots being over in the northeast part 
of the state near Ashland.  In the near term, no significant weather 
is expected.  Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 70s and 
lower 80s with readings falling into the upper 70s by mid-evening.

For tonight, quiet weather is expected as northwest flow aloft will 
continue across the region.  With high pressure moving through the 
Great Lakes, another dry night of weather is expected.  Overnight 
lows will fall into the lower-mid 60s for most locations, a few of 
the typical cool spots may get into the upper 50s.

Northwest flow will continue across the region on Wednesday as mid-
level heights rise slightly.  This should lead to more sunshine and 
slightly warmer temperatures.  Generally speaking, highs look to 
warm into the 82-87 degree range Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Wednesday Night - Friday Night...

Upper-level ridging will move over the Ohio Valley Wednesday night 
through Thursday. As heights increase, temperatures will also 
increase back to normal levels. At the surface, high pressure will 
move off to the east and surface flow will veer southerly allowing 
moisture to return to the region on Thursday. PWATs will increase to 
around 2 inches by Thursday afternoon. Over the northern Plains and 
upper Midwest, troughing will dig south leading to the next system 
to move through the region. As the system moves east, cloud coverage 
and precipitation chances will increase. Showers and storms are 
possible Thursday late afternoon through Friday, after the cold 
front passes through the region. Given modest instability and ample 
moisture, will likely see some storms capable of gusty-damaging 
winds and heavy rain. Shear is limited-weak, therefore, not 
expecting great organization of storms. 

Weekend - Early Next Week...

As the front moves through the region, precip chances will decrease, 
winds will shift to a northwesterly direction, dew points will drop, 
and temperatures will dip just slightly below normal. Expect to see 
these conditions remain over the region through the remainder of the 
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 659 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Forecast remains relatively unchanged through the TAF forecast 
period. Continued VFR flight categories through the forecast. Likely 
going to see some high clouds with light to variable winds through 
the period thanks to a vast area of sfc high pressure over the Ohio 
Valley.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...SRM
AVIATION...BTN