279 
FXUS61 KCLE 100547
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
147 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area tonight. Upper level
troughing will sink southward over the region this weekend. 
High pressure returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Much quieter and drier weather in store for the weekend as two 
features,  Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby and a cold front extending 
from a surface low over Ontario, exit the region. Large scale 
subsidence behind the cold front and along a ridge of high pressure 
will promote dry weather for much of the region through the near 
term period. Hi-resolution guidance continues to show lake 
enhanced rain showers/thunderstorms along the lakeshore from 
Cleveland and points east Saturday and Saturday evening as the 
base of an upper low dips south into the Lower Great Lakes 
region. 

Mainly clear skies will allow for overnight lows in the mid/upper 
50s tonight and Saturday night lows to drop into the low/mid 50s. 
Cooler and less humid for Saturday with afternoon highs in the mid 
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough is over the Great Lakes Region on Sunday with 
below normal temperatures and generally partly cloudy conditions. A 
few light lake effect rain showers are possible near the lakeshore 
from Cleveland to Erie, becoming focused more in the east towards 
evening. The trough departs to the east on Monday with high pressure 
expanding overhead. Drier air arrives with only scattered cumulus 
expected on Monday. Temperatures recover a couple degrees on Monday 
but overnight lows remain on the cool side, generally near 60 along 
the lakeshore with values in the 50s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term forecast will feature a northwest flow aloft with 
several shortwaves passing overhead. While surface high pressure is 
over the region at the start of the period, most models show the 
first decent wave passing Monday night into Tuesday. Initially it 
looks too dry to include a pop but will need to monitor if moisture 
return is sufficient enough to kick off scattered showers by
Tuesday. In general it looks like high pressure over the Great 
Lakes will try to keep the focus for precipitation south of the 
area for much of the week but will depend on strength and timing
of systems moving through the northwest flow. Temperatures look
to be near normal for much of the long term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Generally expect VFR conditions through the TAF period, but
troughing over the area will result in scattered to broken mid-
level lake-enhanced clouds with low-end chances for scattered
showers for KCLE/KYNG/KERI. There's still some uncertainty in
low to mid-level moisture and the resulting coverage of lower
ceilings and showers; more moisture could result in patchy MVFR
ceilings and a greater chance of showers at the aforementioned
NE OH/NW PA TAF sites. Shower coverage will likely be highest
after 00Z Sunday as cooler 850mb temperatures arrive from the
northwest.

Winds will be out of the west/northwest at 6 to 14 knots with
gusts to about 20 knots likely this afternoon into early this
evening. 

Outlook....Non-VFR possible with periodic and isolated to
scattered lake enhanced showers/thunderstorms through Sunday
night. The showers will remain confined to Northeast Ohio and 
Northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect on Lake Erie for much of the 
weekend as a trough and cooler airmass settles over the region. 
Advisories west of the Lake Erie Islands are only in effect through 
4 AM with areas west of the Islands in effect through late Saturday 
night and continuing through the day on Sunday east of Avon. Beach 
Hazard statements for a high swim risk are also in effect for 
similar times. Northwesterly winds will become more westerly on 
Saturday with waves of 4 to 7 feet for the east half of the lake. In 
addition, waterspouts will be possible as the cooler air arrives, 
with higher chances on Saturday and Sunday mornings. 

The trough finally departs on Monday with high pressure building in 
from the west. Northwest winds decrease to 5 to 15 knots on Monday 
with light winds and waves expected through mid-week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ009-010.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for 
     LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Saunders
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...KEC