554 
FXUS64 KMOB 282039
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
339 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

The upper ridge over the region weakens slightly tonight as a 
shortwave trough moving east across the Great Lakes region brings 
increased upper level troughing to much of the eastern CONUS. The 
northern periphery of the upper ridging over the Gulf will remain 
across the immediate coastal areas through tonight, with upper 
ridging then building north to the west of our forecast area on 
Monday as the upper troughing deepens somewhat along the US East 
Coast. With this, a deep mid layer northwesterly flow will develop 
over the area on Monday, with guidance indicating potential for a 
couple of weak shortwaves to drop southeast across our area during 
the day. At the surface, a very weak trough continues to linger 
across the immediate Gulf coast region. 

With the potential shortwave activity aloft, the continuing surface 
boundary, and PWAT's remaining in the 2.0 to 2.2 inch range, look 
for a slight increase in coverage of showers and storms again on 
Monday (after a slightly lower coverage than past few days today). 
Best chances for showers and storms on Monday will be over the 
eastern half of our forecast area due to influences of slightly 
increased upper riding over the west. We do expect the diurnal 
nature of convective to persist through Monday, with showers and 
thunderstorms developing along the coast late tonight and then 
becoming more numerous and developing inland during the day on 
Monday. A few of the stronger storms will have the potential of 
creating gusty surface winds up to the 35 to 40 mph range. However 
the main concern will continue to be the risk of locally heavy 
rainfall and potential resultant minor flooding of low lying, poor 
drainage and and urban areas as the showers and storms should be 
very efficient rain producers. 

Low temperatures tonight will be 3 to 6 degrees above normal, and 
range from 73 to 76 degrees inland areas, and from 77 to 81 degrees 
along the coast. Highs on Monday will be quite warm, at least in the 
lower 90s across all of the area, and possibly mid 90s over western 
portions of the forecast area. We have issued a Heat Advisory over 
western portions of the forecast area for Monday, mainly all of our 
interior southeast MS counties and western-most tier of southwest AL 
counties (Choctaw, Washington and Mobile), as heat indices could 
reach up around 109 degrees in some locations in the Advised area. 
DS/12 

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday) 
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

One more rather active day is anticipated for Tuesday as upper 
ridging builds over the Southern Plains and a weak upper trough 
lingers over the eastern US. Weak shortwaves, embedded within the 
northwesterly flow aloft, look to continue moving into the 
Southeast US during this time. These shortwaves, along with deep 
moisture remaining in place, will help to support high rain 
chances (60-80 percent) over the eastern half of the region. Rain 
chances decrease (40-50 percent) the further west you go due to 
the closer proximity of the upper ridge. Convection will generally
follow a diurnal pattern, with scattered to numerous showers and 
storms developing offshore and over coastal counties during the 
morning, spreading inland during the afternoon via sea breeze and 
outflow boundaries. With a lack of shear, severe weather is not 
expected, although, as is the case with pulse-type convection, a 
few stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds cannot be 
ruled out. Heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding, 
is also a concern, especially over urban/poor drainage areas. 
Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 90s. A few locations 
over our western zones may approach Heat Advisory thresholds (heat
indices exceeding 108 degrees) on Tuesday given their closer 
proximity to the upper ridge.

For Wednesday and through much of the extended period, upper ridging 
looks to expand eastward, encompassing much of the CONUS. Increasing 
subsidence from the ridge aloft should help to reduce PoPs back to 
our typical summertime, scattered afternoon coverage (generally 
around 30-50 percent) for the entire area. With lower rain chances 
and increasing subsidence, highs are expected to rise into the mid 
to upper 90s. Heat Advisory products will likely become necessary 
for much of the local area for heat indices of 108-112 degrees. 
Higher rain chances and slightly lower temperatures may return for 
Sunday as the ridge breaks down and a weakening frontal boundary 
attempts to approach our area from the north. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Flow will be somewhat variable, but mainly a light southwesterly 
flow during the afternoons and evenings each day throughout the 
week, shifting westerly to northwesterly late night into the 
morning hours. Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and 
storms can be expected each day over the marine area, especially 
during the morning hours. Conditions will favorable for the 
development of waterspouts through most of the week as well. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  93  76  93  75  94  76  94 /  10  50  20  50  20  50  10  50 
Pensacola   78  91  78  92  77  92  78  92 /  20  80  20  50  20  50  10  40 
Destin      80  90  79  90  79  92  79  92 /  20  60  20  60  20  40  10  30 
Evergreen   74  93  74  93  75  95  74  95 /  50  70  20  60  10  50  10  40 
Waynesboro  74  94  74  95  75  97  75  97 /  20  50  10  40  10  30   0  30 
Camden      74  91  74  93  75  95  75  95 /  40  70  20  60  10  40  10  30 
Crestview   74  93  74  93  74  95  74  95 /  20  80  20  80  20  50  10  50 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ051-052-261-
     263-265.

FL...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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