085 
FXUS64 KMOB 211154
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
654 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

VFR conditions prevail outside of numerous showers and storms 
today. Expect brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities to
MVFR or IFR levels, in addition to strong and variable wind 
gusts, near any storms throughout the TAF cycle. Storms will 
decrease in coverage by this evening, but should re-develop along 
the coast again overnight and into the pre-dawn hours on Monday. 
07/mb

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024/ 

..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Not much of a change in the weather pattern is expected in the near 
term period. Light southwesterly flow aloft will continue as a weak, 
but broad, upper trough remains draped across the south central 
CONUS. Weak shortwaves embedded within this flow aloft will 
continue to periodically move across the area through the period as 
well, although timing of these weak features is difficult to nail 
down. At the surface, a frontal boundary will remain stalled across 
parts of the South, generally extending from the Tennessee Valley 
Region southwestward across northern portions of Mississippi. 
Additionally, a ridge axis associated with high pressure centered 
over the Atlantic continues to extend westward into the Gulf of 
Mexico and Gulf coast region. This will continue to provide us with 
a light and persistent onshore flow through the period. 

With this pattern the onshore flow noted earlier, both at the 
surface and aloft, will continue to allow for deep moisture (with 
PWATs greater than 2 inches) to advect into the local region through 
Monday.  This, combined with forcing from the nearby surface front 
and shortwave energy aloft, will allow for at least scattered to 
numerous (maybe even occasionally widespread) showers and storms to 
develop across the local area each day through the period. 

Convective coverage will likely generally follow a typical diurnal 
pattern, with showers and storms developing along coastal counties 
and offshore during the overnight and early morning hours, followed 
by coverage spreading inland by the afternoon and early evening 
hours. Convective coverages will generally be greatest during the 
peak heating hours of late afternoon into early evening. It likely 
won't rain at any one location for long periods of time, but much of 
the area will see rain at one time or another. Not expecting any 
organized severe weather with this activity due to a lack of shear, 
although a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds to 
around 40 mph cannot be ruled out. Some storms may also produce 
heavy rainfall (given the deep moisture in place) which could be 
capable of producing localized flooding concerns, primarily over 
urban/poor drainage areas. 

Highs on Sunday will again only reach the upper 80s due to the 
expected rainfall and extensive cloud cover present. Lows Sunday 
night will range from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s 
along the coast. On Monday, look for high temperatures to again be 
mainly in the upper 80s. DS/12 

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday) 
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

The unsettled weather pattern persists through Thursday before rain 
chances return to a more typical summertime pattern.

Ridging aloft over the western Atlantic continues to nose into the 
eastern Gulf and Southeast through mid-week. A shortwave trough 
remains draped across the Plains as a ridge builds into the Desert 
Southwest early in the week. The diffuse shortwave lingers west of 
our area as the western Atlantic ridge builds toward the Southeast 
in the middle to latter part of the week. We maintain onshore flow 
aloft through Thursday as the local area remains sandwiched between 
the ridge and general troughiness to our west. Guidance continues to 
highlight the potential for a subtle inverted trough to drift into 
the eastern Gulf around the southern periphery of the ridge in the 
early to middle part of the week with another one on its heels late 
in the week or early next weekend. We may see some additional 
moisture advected into the region from the first feature (assuming 
it materializes) by mid-week. Down at the surface, the local area 
remains on the periphery of the western Atlantic ridge with onshore 
flow expected throughout the week. Deep southerly flow will continue 
to usher rich, Gulf moisture into the region with PWATs of 2.0+ 
inches. As the ridge noses deeper into the Southeast over the 
weekend, moisture levels may begin to drop somewhat.

In general, expect the typical diurnal pattern in convection with 
showers and storms flaring up along the coast and nearshore waters 
in the pre-dawn hours and re-development each afternoon across 
inland communities. The blended guidance for POPs continues to be 
too high throughout the extended timeframe, so we continued the 
trend of cutting the POPs down each afternoon to more reasonable 
values (albeit still higher than what we traditionally see in the 
summer months). As previously mentioned, ridging becomes more 
dominant late in the week and into next weekend which equates to 
rain chances dipping back toward what we normally see in the summer 
months (i.e. scattered convection in the afternoon hours along the 
sea breeze). Storms will be efficient rainmakers (quickly dropping 1-
2 inches of rain in a short period of time), so the predominant 
threat will be nuisance/minor flooding, especially in area where 
storms repeatedly move over the same locations. Also can't rule out 
a few strong to potentially severe pulse-type storms in the 
afternoon hours with gusty winds and frequent lightning being the 
main threats. 

Temperatures through the end of the week will generally be tempered 
by the rain and increased cloud cover each day. Expect highs to be 
several degrees below normal through Friday with heat indices well 
below Advisory criteria. As the ridge nears the area over the 
weekend, temperatures begin to creep up toward climatological values 
for this time of year and heat indices rise to near Advisory criteria.

Beach Note: The risk for rip currents remains LOW through mid-week 
while increasing to MODERATE on Thursday for the Florida panhandle 
beaches. The rip current MOS probabilities have continued the trend 
of a bump to MODERATE for the panhandle beaches late in the week. 
07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected to 
continue through next week. There will be a chance of thunderstorms
each day, with favorable conditions for waterspouts each morning.
Winds and seas will be locally higher near thunderstorms. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      88  74  88  74  88  73  86  73 /  80  50  80  40  80  50  80  40 
Pensacola   88  76  88  77  89  76  88  76 /  70  60  70  40  70  50  80  50 
Destin      89  79  89  79  90  78  88  78 /  70  60  70  40  60  50  70  50 
Evergreen   88  71  88  70  88  70  87  71 /  80  50  80  40  70  50  80  40 
Waynesboro  89  71  89  70  88  69  85  70 /  80  50  80  40  70  50  80  30 
Camden      88  70  87  70  87  70  85  70 /  80  50  70  40  70  50  70  40 
Crestview   90  73  90  72  91  71  90  73 /  70  50  80  30  70  40  80  40 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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