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269 FXUS63 KIND 171853 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 253 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening - Very pleasant dry and mild weather expected from tonight at least through the weekend. - Slightly more humid and unsettled weather begins to return next work week. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 252 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Rest of Today... Upper level analysis still shows a well established positively tilted trough over northern Indiana, of which will continue to push E/SE supported by moderate 850-700mb CAA. Out ahead of this trough, modest instability below 400mb and the progression of weak surface boundaries has allowed for scattered convective showers to develop. Most of these showers will remain fairly weak, but latest ACARs soundings should steady steepening of the mid level lapse rates allowing for a few cells to reach 25kft and produce greater rainfall rates and lighting. Brief 30-40mph gusts and pea sized hail cannot be ruled out in these stronger storms, but most should remain weak and short-lived. Temperatures will continue to rise throughout the afternoon with most locations along and south of I-70 reaching the mid 60s. A few areas in northern central Indiana may fail to reach the low 80s if cloud cover remains thick/overcast this afternoon. Tonight and Tomorrow... The parent boundary is currently over northern Indiana, and will make its way through this evening into the early overnight. Behind this boundary, surface dew points are much lower, removing the rain/storm threat. Temperatures will also cool as a Canadian high establishes over the Ohio Valley. Winds will will also change directions as the parent boundary moves through from W/NW to N/NNE. Winds should remain fairly constant overnight between 5-7kts, but pockets of nearly calm conditions are possible within close vicinity to the boundary. If any shallow patchy fog were to develop tonight, it would be within these calmer areas. Tomorrow will be much cooler than usual with highs in the mid to upper 70s. High pressure should help promote clear conditions outside of some passing cirrus. && .LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)... Issued at 252 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 The long term period late this week into the middle of next week will be dominated by a fairly amplified large scale upper level ridge/trough pattern from west to east across the CONUS. This will provide a welcome break from the recent heat and humidity for the majority of the period, especially through the weekend, which will be nearly ideal for what is typically the hottest and most humid time of year. Thursday night will be the coolest night of the period, with lows in the 50s across the entire area, with low 50s likely across northern portions of the area by daybreak Friday. Temperatures will moderate slightly as the period wears on, though this will be most noticeable in the lows, as highs will generally remain near to just below normal well into next week, but some gradual increase in the dewpoints will help to prop up lows as we get into next week. Modest chances for convection will return next work week as the surface high gradually shifts eastward and weakens and some low level moisture returns to the area, while the cooler air aloft associated with the upper level trough provides potential for destabilization. This would appear to be mostly diurnal in nature, as there appears to be little in the way of support for organized convection. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 657 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Impacts: - Potential brief IFR/MVFR CIGs from generally VFR-level deck this morning - VCSH through midday with isolated TSHRA possible south of I-70 - Winds veering to NNW by 20Z today...afternoon gusts to 13-16KT Discussion: Transition into northerly flow out of Canadian high pressure will continue during TAF period. Fair weather will prevail today between widely scattered -SHRA...although with confidence in both rain, and isolated VCTS, too low for any given location and time, have maintained VCSH mention in TAFs. Light winds early today will increase this morning while continuing to veer through northwesterly directions...to NNW flow this afternoon. Winds will be sustained at 6-12KT with gusts to 13-16KT. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Updike LONG TERM...Nield AVIATION...AGM