306 
FXUS64 KMOB 121111
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
611 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Local drops to 
MVFR levels possible between 19z and 02z near the coast with 
isolated shra/tsra possible. A seabreeze developing along the coast 
in the afternoon will shift general northerly winds around 5 knots 
to south to southwesterly around 10 knots closer to the coast as it 
moves inland.
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 458 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024/ 

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 458 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

An upper level ridge stretching southwest over the northern Gulf of 
Mexico from the open Atlantic is bisected by a shortwave system off 
the FL/GA/SC/NC coast this morning. This shortwave system is 
expected to weaken into the weekend, allowing the upper ridge over
the Southeast and Gulf to build. A weakly organized surface low 
has organized off the Atlantic Seaboard, pushing drier air south 
over the eastern half of the Southeast. Southwesterly flow around 
a surface ridge stretching west over the Gulf of Mexico is moving 
Gulf moisture inland over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and 
western portions of the Southeast, shifting a band of higher 
moisture levels ( with precipitable h20 values > 2") along the 
coast inland over Mississippi and southwestern-most Alabama. Also 
helping to move the moisture inland is a seabreeze forming daily 
along the Gulf coast and moving inland today and Saturday. This 
unbalanced approach to the moisture along with the upper ridge 
building over eastern portions of the Southeast will allow for a 
better chance of rain further inland the further west one goes in 
the forecast area. Am expecting areas along and north of Highway 
84 to see little to no rain today, with scattered showers and 
thunderstorms possible closer to the Mississippi and Alabama 
coast. Rain chances see a greater inland coverage for Saturday as 
more Gulf moisture works its way inland. 

Temperatures remain above seasonal norms as the upper ridge builds, 
with mid to upper 90s expected today and Saturday. Heat indices in 
the 100 to 105 degree range today rise into the 102 to 108 degree 
range Saturday as moisture levels increase. A Heat Advisory will 
likely be needed Saturday. Temperatures tonight fall into the low to 
mid 70s inland to upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.

A low risk of Rip currents is expected into the coming week, even as 
the tidal range increases. Lack of significant swell is the reason.
/16

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 458 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

To start the period, an upper level shortwave will be moving east
across the Ohio Vally region and off the Mid Atlantic coast by the
end of the day on Sunday. Meanwhile, upper level riding will be
building over the Southeast and Gulf Coast region by Sunday and
will persist across the area through Wednesday. The ridging will
deflect most of the weak shortwave energy in the flow aloft to 
our north from the end of the weekend through Wednesday or next 
week. By Thursday of next week, a stronger shortwave trough will 
be approaching our area with the upper ridging breaking down. 

Precipitable water values initially in the 1.90 inch range on
Sunday increase to the 2.0 to 2.2 inch (possibly even a little 
higher at times) range for the remainder of the forecast period. 
This deep layer moisture, combined with daytime heating, sea 
breeze interactions, and residual outflow boundaries will result
in a typical summertime convective pattern of scattered afternoon
and early evening showers and thunderstorms Sunday through
Wednesday. Daily PoPs in the 30 to 50 percent range will 
prevail. By Thursday, as the upper ridging breaks down with the
stronger shortwave approaching and also a surface frontal boundary
beginning to make its way south into the Southeastern CONUS, look
for a possible slight uptick in chances for showers and storms on
Thursday (with a PoP of around 60 percent). The severe weather 
risk will generally be low through the period, but localized 
storms could be strong enough to produce brief wind gusts in 
excess of 40 mph, frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours.

Away from storms, which will provide temporary relief from the 
summer heat, daytime highs range from the mid to upper 90s. This 
combined with surface dewpoints well into the 70s suggest heat 
index values will be on the increase in the extended period, and Heat
Advisories may be required. This will be particularly true for our  
western and coastal sections of the forecast area (where afternoon
heat indices could return to the 108 to 112 degree range).
Overnight lows will remain rather consistent, ranging from the low
to mid 70s over inland areas to the upper 70s along the coast
(with barrier islands likely remaining in the lower 80s overnight).
DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 458 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A general westerly component to winds are expected through the 
forecast period, with a daytime onshore component, nighttime 
offshore component developing. Magnitude is expected to remain 
generally light. No impacts expected other than locally higher 
winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      96  75  96  76  95  76  95  76 /  30  10  30  10  50  10  60  20 
Pensacola   94  77  93  78  94  79  93  78 /  30  10  20  10  50  20  50  30 
Destin      93  80  93  80  92  80  92  80 /  20  10  20  10  40  20  50  30 
Evergreen   96  72  97  74  96  73  95  74 /  20  10  20  10  50  10  50  20 
Waynesboro  97  72  97  74  97  74  96  74 /  20  10  30  10  50  10  50  20 
Camden      96  72  98  75  98  74  96  74 /  10   0  10   0  40  10  50  20 
Crestview   97  72  98  74  97  74  95  74 /  20  10  30  10  40  10  50  20 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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